Jackson Hole Economics

Forget Cyprus: Focus on the Big and Slow

Originally published at CNBC | March 26, 2013

In nature, some animals have very poor eyesight, such that they can hardly see anything that isn’t moving. In the film Jurassic Park, as Sam O’Neill strategized how to avoid becoming lunch for a T-Rex, he aptly remarked, “stay still, he can’t see us if we don’t move.” A similar dynamic can be observed in the investing world, afflicting both bulls and bears alike.

Investors are prone to add unnecessary significance to the latest piece of fast-moving market noise, while underestimating or missing large and slow-moving shifts that have huge impact.

The past week has been a good example. Cyprus, an economy with a GDP around half the size of Tulsa, Oklahoma’s, is dominating the headlines and the minds of traders and retail investors. But, it would make a lot more sense to be talking about the recent and hugely important signals that the $20 trillion U.S. housing market has entered a sustainable upswing. Continue Reading.