Under Donald Trump, the US is displaying erratic tendencies. The economic and financial repercussions could be massive.
America Looks Like a Troubled Emerging-Market Economy
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Economics
Signs of a US Recession
While it appears unlikely that US GDP will contract in the first quarter, the economy could enter recession territory in the second or third
When Trust is Lost
Trump has lost the trust of America and the world. Trust will not be easily regained.
Europe’s New Power Trio
Europe has a new generation of leaders. And they are ready to lead.
Trump’s Tariffs Will Hurt Mexico – and America
The more tariffs harm Mexico, the more immigrants will come north.
Trump’s Looming Deficit Disaster
Trump risks a global downturn by pursuing incoherent fiscal and trade policies.
The Time for Interest-Bearing Central Bank Digital Currency is Now
By adopting CBDC and eliminating cash as we know it, central banks can arm themselves with a powerful tool to boost demand.
Developing Countries Need a New Approach to Long-Term Financing
The world is in the midst of a financing crisis.
World Order in a Time of Monsters
We are in the midst of a fundamental reordering of the global system, the outcome of which remains unclear.
Give the UK Growth Agenda a Chance
Given the United Kingdom’s poor investment performance over the past 30 years, any government would need time and luck to turn things around.
Trump’s Trade Scam
An External Revenue Service is Orwellian. Tariffs are paid by US residents. Full stop.
Economists’ Way Out of the Wilderness
If economists are to solve the problems that people care about, they must stop treating production as an afterthought and accept – as all
Trump’s First Test Will Be the Bond Market
The bond markets are watching. Trump and Bessent should consider themselves warned.
Maganomics: When Rhetoric Becomes Reality
President-Elect Trump promises tax cuts and deregulation that will boost trend US GDP growth. But it is very possible that demand outstrips
Can Trump Dump the Dollar?
US President-elect Donald Trump’s incoming administration will likely seek to weaken the greenback’s exchange rate. But whether
The Truth About Migration
Time and again, migration has driven human advancement. With the right policies, it will continue to do so.
A No-Brainer for Global Growth and US Jobs
With global growth slowing and many developing countries facing debt crises, the world needs another infusion of the International Monetary
Global Economic Perspectives 2025
The world economy in 2025 superficially resembles that of 2024. But, beneath a tranquil economic surface, important changes are taking place.
The Economic Consequences of Trump 2.0
The US president-elect’s signature policies will do almost nothing positive for less educated Americans or significantly improve the
Economic Development in a Protectionist World
As apprehension grows in China, Europe, and Japan about a possible trade war triggered by the incoming Trump administration, one should also
A Baseline Scenario for the Global Economy in 2025
In 2024, global geopolitics and national politics have undergone considerable upheaval.
The US Economy’s Trust Deficit
Declining trust in America’s institutions is not merely a contemporary phenomenon. It has real economic costs.
What If Trump Subdues the Fed?
More and more commentators are thinking the unthinkable: Donald Trump might end the Fed’s independence. The result would be calamitous.
Could He Do It?
The financial markets are near all-time highs, yet the ingredients for an epochal financial crisis appear to be building.