The View From Argentina

The View From Argentina

Argentina is in crisis. The pandemic had turned a bleak story into something worse. The country may shortly default on its national debt for the ninth time in its history, with far-reaching consequences. But there is still hope. Continue Reading

A Mountain of Debt

A Mountain of Debt

The latest data on US government borrowing are very impressive. The Federal deficit in April alone was $738 billion. For the first four months of 2020 the red ink amounts to $1.13 trillion, equivalent to the annual GDP of Florida. Continue Reading

The Deadly Urgency of Now

The Deadly Urgency of Now

The consequences of lapses in international cooperation in combating COVID-19 over the last few months can now be counted in lost lives. Having failed to stop the first wave of the pandemic, we must not make the same mistake again. Continue Reading

What the Stock Market Is Really Saying

What the Stock Market Is Really Saying

The seeming confidence expressed by global equity markets in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic has surprised many – including many market participants. But a closer look reveals an unambiguous message: The global economy is facing a long, deep malaise, followed by a “new normal” of reduced earnings and profitability for all but a chosen few. Continue Reading

A Global COVID-19 Exit Strategy

A Global COVID-19 Exit Strategy

The COVID-19 pandemic poses an unprecedented threat to both public health and the global economy. Only by ditching nationalist rhetoric and policies, and embracing stronger international cooperation, can governments protect the people they claim to represent. Continue Reading

Getting America Back to Work… Safely

Getting America Back to Work… Safely

Without a credible plan, the nation will be in fear and chaos for a long time. COVID-19 infections are peaking in parts of the country, but contrary to President Trump’s assurances that he will open the economy soon, the surgeon general recently declared that many places in the US will not be able to open on May 1. So who decides? Continue Reading

A Better Idea

A Better Idea

During the COVID19 crisis, it is easy to forget that the world is full of other important stress points that must not be ignored. The seemingly endless Israeli-Palestinian conflict is one, but there are rays of light that should be built on. Continue Reading

Why The Largest Stimulus In History Still Is Not Enough

Why The Largest Stimulus In History Still Is Not Enough

Global equity markets rallied over 20% last week on expectations that the $2 trillion U.S. fiscal stimulus package would be adequate to combat the economic consequences of the pandemic, thereby stabilizing the U.S. and world economies. It did not take the market long to see that the size and design is nowhere near sufficient. On… Continue Reading

Time To Print Money

Time To Print Money

As the pandemic spreads, so too do fears of recession or worse. Respected forecasters speak of 30-50% declines in US gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity. Unemployment could spike to 20% or higher. In some countries, such as Italy, the economic consequences could be even worse. Left unaddressed, it is no exaggeration… Continue Reading

Should Markets Be Closed?

Should Markets Be Closed?

Today, our species is in panic. COVID-19 is driving upheaval in every human realm. There can be no doubt that the primary mission is to slow the spread of the disease and develop a vaccine as soon as possible. Continue Reading

Market Volatility Explained

Market Volatility Explained

This morning, March 18th, global equity markets are again in steep decline, despite the stepped up fiscal and monetary commitments announced in the past few days. Although the policy steps to address the pandemic and its economic consequences are becoming more realistic, they are likely not enough to stabilize markets for two reasons. First, few… Continue Reading

Thoughts on Surviving the Avalanche

Thoughts on Surviving the Avalanche

Financial markets are in disarray. Indexes are in free-fall one day, bursting upwards the next. Many investors are on the edge of panic. Some of us have been caught in an avalanche, had near-drowning experiences, been in a car crash, or served in the military and seen armed conflict. When panic comes, and it usually… Continue Reading

Rising Uncertainty

Rising Uncertainty

Markets have suffered a hiccup in recent days, with stock prices dipping at the end of the past week. Long-term interest rates are once again moving lower. Continue Reading