Trump, Avalanches, and Character

Sometimes, an avalanche is triggered by one final snowflake weighting a slope beyond what it can take. Could Trump’s growing litany of legal woes and character issues similarly undermine his support?

The Fiscal State of the Union

If political leaders in the US don’t tackle both structural fiscal adjustment and tax reform, 2025 will be a year of reckoning.

Explaining Americans’ Pessimism About a Strong Economy

At least six reasons have been advanced to explain the apparent disconnect between US economic indicators and public-opinion surveys. While some are clearly wrong, others – in particular, the idea that perceptions are simply lagging behind reality – are convincing.

Which AI Risks Matter?

Although overly confident predictions about artificial intelligence are as old as the field itself, there is good reason to take seriously the risks associated with the technology. Like a future asteroid strike, the emergence of an intelligence that could marginalize humanity is as plausible as human evolution itself.

Sometimes, an avalanche is triggered by one final snowflake weighting a slope beyond what it can take. Could Trump’s growing litany of legal woes and character issues similarly undermine his support?

At least six reasons have been advanced to explain the apparent disconnect between US economic indicators and public-opinion surveys. While some are clearly wrong, others – in particular, the idea that perceptions are simply lagging behind reality – are convincing.

If political leaders in the US don’t tackle both structural fiscal adjustment and tax reform, 2025 will be a year of reckoning.

Although overly confident predictions about artificial intelligence are as old as the field itself, there is good reason to take seriously the risks associated with the technology. Like a future asteroid strike, the emergence of an intelligence that could marginalize humanity is as plausible as human evolution itself.

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