Larry Hatheway has over 25 years experience as an economist and multi-asset investment professional. He is co-founder, with Alexander Friedman, of Jackson Hole Economics, LLC, which offers commentary and analysis on the global economy, policy & politics, and their broad implications for capital markets. Prior to co-founding Jackson Hole Economics, LLC Larry worked at GAM… Continue Reading
The stock market is soaring while small businesses are dying. It can’t go on this way. A K-shaped recovery is a disaster, and would undermine the ‘United’ part of our States. Continue Reading
The good news is that the unprecedented initial policy response to the economic downturn triggered by COVID-19 has averted a worst-case scenario, making comparisons to the Great Depression unwarranted. Continue Reading
Today’s gold and cryptocurrency ‘bugs’ sense that inflation will bring handsome returns. They may want to dust off the works of Milton Friedman. Continue Reading
Few issues in economics more befuddle and divide the profession than figuring out what determines exchange rates. Continue Reading
After four years of a president who has deliberately tried to divide Americans, the United States can and must find common purpose to address its many challenges. The next US president can take a range of early steps to achieve this goal. Continue Reading
Stay-at-home orders are “fascist” and “not democratic.” At least, that’s according to Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Continue Reading
The seeming confidence expressed by global equity markets in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic has surprised many – including many market participants. But a closer look reveals an unambiguous message: The global economy is facing a long, deep malaise, followed by a “new normal” of reduced earnings and profitability for all but a chosen few. Continue Reading
The world economy is in the midst of a unique shock. It tests our ability to use conventional models and history to gain understanding. Continue Reading
Global equity markets rallied over 20% last week on expectations that the $2 trillion U.S. fiscal stimulus package would be adequate to combat the economic consequences of the pandemic, thereby stabilizing the U.S. and world economies. It did not take the market long to see that the size and design is nowhere near sufficient. On… Continue Reading
While China appears to have contained new rates of infection (flattened the curve to near-zero new cases), doubts will persist whether China’s political, social and institutional advantages in pandemic. Continue Reading
In the game of chess, the queen is the most valuable piece on the board. Protecting her is paramount, but she can’t be out of action forever. The queen must be deployed at just the right time to defeat an opponent. Continue Reading
The COVID-19 epidemic is accelerating, and as the new coronavirus approaches pandemic status, it is increasingly likely that the economic impact will be severe. Alongside intensifying public-health responses, governments must step in to mitigate the virus’s impact on growth, employment, and living standards. Continue Reading
What it means—in plain English In 2020 the world economy is likely to extend its longest expansion on record. Inflation has defied forecasts by staying low. Don’t count on that changing anytime soon. The biggest risks are political, not economic. Partly, that reflects a resilient world economy. Mostly, it reflects the potential for harm wrought… Continue Reading
Occasionally, the arrival of something unusual provides an opportunity to dispel lazy thinking about how things really work. The unusual is the coronavirus. The lazy thinking has to do with how stocks and bonds interact. Continue Reading
The old central-bank playbook of slashing interest rates to spur consumption, investment, and employment has become less effective since the 2008 financial crisis. Yet without effective tools and the public’s confidence, central banks will be unable to rise to the occasion when the next recession arrives. Continue Reading
Weak productivity growth helps to explain the continued robust rates of job creation in the United States, as well as workers’ sluggish wage gains. If left unresolved, the productivity malaise will ensure that the current expansion remains uniquely unbalanced and unhealthy. Continue Reading
Larry Hatheway, chief economist and head of investment solutions at GAM, discusses currency trading and Brexit. Continue Reading
In September 2011, the IMF estimated that roughly half of the Euro Zone’s $9 trillion in outstanding government debt was now at ‘heightened credit risk‘. Continue Reading
Over the final quarter of 2019, the tug of war between economic resilience and recession risk is likely to dominate market outcomes and asset allocation decision making. The asset allocation committee outlines its views below. Continue Reading
Strategic asset-allocation decisions determine most of an investment portfolio’s subsequent return. Investors need to focus more on the composition of their portfolios and worry less about whether they are actively or passively managed. Continue Reading
