Larry Hatheway has over 25 years experience as an economist and multi-asset investment professional. He is co-founder, with Alexander Friedman, of Jackson Hole Economics, LLC, which offers commentary and analysis on the global economy, policy & politics, and their broad implications for capital markets. Prior to co-founding Jackson Hole Economics, LLC Larry worked at GAM… Continue Reading
Stay-at-home orders are “fascist” and “not democratic.” At least, that’s according to Tesla CEO Elon Musk. Continue Reading
The seeming confidence expressed by global equity markets in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic has surprised many – including many market participants. But a closer look reveals an unambiguous message: The global economy is facing a long, deep malaise, followed by a “new normal” of reduced earnings and profitability for all but a chosen few. Continue Reading
The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed fundamental fault lines in the reigning business model of the past 40 years. Continue Reading
The world economy is in the midst of a unique shock. It tests our ability to use conventional models and history to gain understanding. Continue Reading
Global equity markets rallied over 20% last week on expectations that the $2 trillion U.S. fiscal stimulus package would be adequate to combat the economic consequences of the pandemic, thereby stabilizing the U.S. and world economies. It did not take the market long to see that the size and design is nowhere near sufficient. On… Continue Reading
While China appears to have contained new rates of infection (flattened the curve to near-zero new cases), doubts will persist whether China’s political, social and institutional advantages in pandemic. Continue Reading
Financial markets are in disarray. Indexes are in free-fall one day, bursting upwards the next. Many investors are on the edge of panic. Some of us have been caught in an avalanche, had near-drowning experiences, been in a car crash, or served in the military and seen armed conflict. When panic comes, and it usually… Continue Reading
In the game of chess, the queen is the most valuable piece on the board. Protecting her is paramount, but she can’t be out of action forever. The queen must be deployed at just the right time to defeat an opponent. Continue Reading
The COVID-19 epidemic is accelerating, and as the new coronavirus approaches pandemic status, it is increasingly likely that the economic impact will be severe. Alongside intensifying public-health responses, governments must step in to mitigate the virus’s impact on growth, employment, and living standards. Continue Reading
Few images better capture the Wild West’s by-gone era of adventure and lawlessness than ‘most wanted’ posters adorned with the grimacing miens of bank robbers like Butch Cassidy or Jessie James. Today’s residents of Wyoming might soon fear another ‘heist’, but this time the image may portray the smiling face of the tax collector. Continue Reading
What it means—in plain English In 2020 the world economy is likely to extend its longest expansion on record. Inflation has defied forecasts by staying low. Don’t count on that changing anytime soon. The biggest risks are political, not economic. Partly, that reflects a resilient world economy. Mostly, it reflects the potential for harm wrought… Continue Reading
In climbing, risk management is everything. Ask any mountaineer who has made it into his or her forties how they did it, and they will invariably say it was a mix of luck and knowing which dangers were the ones to heed. Good judgement in being able to properly assess weather patterns, snowpack, rock quality,… Continue Reading
Occasionally, the arrival of something unusual provides an opportunity to dispel lazy thinking about how things really work. The unusual is the coronavirus. The lazy thinking has to do with how stocks and bonds interact. Continue Reading
Yellowstone is America’s first national park. Today, after almost 150 years in existence, it is one of the largest nearly intact ecosystems on the planet. Teams of park rangers and ecologists carefully guard it from damaging invasive species and it is a great example of how humans can draw a boundary around something for its… Continue Reading
DAVOS – The World Economic Forum’s annual flagship meeting this year will focus on how to build a more cohesive and sustainable world. As always, the topic is timely, but also a little abstract. To help give it more concrete form, we have a few proposals to put the prevailing economic model on a better… Continue Reading
The old central-bank playbook of slashing interest rates to spur consumption, investment, and employment has become less effective since the 2008 financial crisis. Yet without effective tools and the public’s confidence, central banks will be unable to rise to the occasion when the next recession arrives. Continue Reading
Weak productivity growth helps to explain the continued robust rates of job creation in the United States, as well as workers’ sluggish wage gains. If left unresolved, the productivity malaise will ensure that the current expansion remains uniquely unbalanced and unhealthy. Continue Reading
Larry Hatheway, chief economist and head of investment solutions at GAM, discusses currency trading and Brexit. Continue Reading
In September 2011, the IMF estimated that roughly half of the Euro Zone’s $9 trillion in outstanding government debt was now at ‘heightened credit risk‘. Continue Reading
Over the final quarter of 2019, the tug of war between economic resilience and recession risk is likely to dominate market outcomes and asset allocation decision making. The asset allocation committee outlines its views below. Continue Reading
