Is China’s economy in real trouble, or is the pessimism unwarranted? The answer likely depends on whether Xi’s authoritarianism erodes
Who Can Trash China’s Economy Most?
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Weekly Market Compass
Labor Day and the Resurgent American Worker
Labor Day 2023 is a good time to reflect on the growing power of the American worker and the political and economic implications.
Artificial Intelligence and Art: Friend or Foe?
“Artificial intelligence is encroaching on the world of art in ways good and bad. Used properly, however, it can improve the workings
Why Debt is Too Often Misunderstood
Understanding how private, public, and foreign debt are interrelated yields important insights into the workings of the economy. It also leads
ESG: Emerging Clarity
There are dozens of different carbon emissions standards being explored by regulators, yet last week the ISSB took a critical step forward
Artificial Intelligence, Economics and the End of Business
Humans are not destined to be slaves to either technological innovation or economics.
Our Summer (But not Necessarily Beach) Reading List
Are you looking for different kind of beach reading this summer? If so, you might enjoy these thoughtful perspectives.
De-Leveraging: The Secret to US Economic Resilience?
The US economy has confounded economists and markets by avoiding recession. Perhaps it is less interest rate sensitive than commonly believed.
Don’t Let the Lessons of Juneteenth Fade
Juneteenth must not be forgotten, for the work of justice and equity is ongoing.
Fly-Casting for Recession
Fly fishing, like economic forecasting, is nothing if not an exercise in patience. Wait long enough, and fortunes may change.
The ESG Debate Will be Solved by Data
ESG will become less political when stakeholders have confidence in the data that a company collects, and context for how to interpret the
Don’t Look Up
In the movie, “Don’t Look Up,” scientists played by Jennifer Lawrence and Leonardo DiCaprio try to warn the US government to take action
The Beauty of Complexity
In looking for simple answers—or worse, easy villains to blame for what goes wrong—we all too often suppress the realities of complexity.
Why Interest Rates Will Come Down
Although the ‘recency bias’ tempts our minds to assume today’s high interest rates are here to stay, the fundamentals of economics suggest
Trump’s Indictment is Just the Beginning
The New York indictment will unleash forces in American politics whose direction and implications are difficult to comprehend.
A Tale of Two Banks
Is the Fed is losing control over the money supply and inflation in its efforts to combat the banking crisis?
Is Banking too Important to Be Left to Bankers?
The Silicon Valley Bank debacle has many lessons, starting with the conclusion that banking may simply be too important to be left to the
Time For a Different Drink?
While it is tempting to assume the market is driven only by the direction of the Federal Reserve, what is happening in China should also be
Why the War Will Continue
The map of Ukraine a year from now will most likely resemble nothing so much as the map as it appears today. The year ahead promises to be
Markets Believe in Miracles
Global equity markets are priced to perfection, a state that is unlikely to remain unchallenged.
Do We Know What Causes Inflation?
The Phillips Curve has fallen into disrepair, leaving central bankers without reliable tools to navigate through the fog. That ought to worry
It Could Happen in 2023
Investing in private markets has been all the rage. That’s a warning, not an endorsement. The risks of disruption in private markets are
Germany: Tanks are Moral
The 20th century was defined, in many ways, by the worst of Germany. The 21st can yet be defined by its best moral self.
Round 1: 2023 ‘Forecasts’
Although John Kenneth Galbraith once said ‘The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable,’ we think