Another week, another dismal set of returns. For stock and bond investors, 2022 is off to a terrible start. Now stresses are beginning to emerge in credit fixed income markets. Large Chinese real estate developers are teetering on the edge of default and US...
Weekly Market Compass
History does not offer many examples of recession-free Fed tightening cycles. Will this be an exception?
For the first time in nearly twenty years, monetary and fiscal policy divergence is emerging worldwide.
Upcoming Fed communication may determine if we are heading into an avoidable recession and a crash on Wall Street.
Thoughts on the political divide in the US and a career at the intersection of economics and investing.
Investors should hope for falling corporate profits, as the alternative will lead to more pain.
Our species is facing an existential threat and all major players need to be held accountable to doing the right thing. The SEC’s new
Bond markets are signaling precarious conditions ahead. Investor should take note.
Investors continue to underestimate global GDP and earnings growth risks.
The economic and market implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine will be profound.
Even after recent market volatility, investors may still be underestimating the risks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The defense of freedom requires action, no matter how large or small. Please consider a donation to help those suffering in Ukraine. We are
If we can force ourselves to disengage from the moment, significant developments are taking place that could reshape our thinking about growth,
As Russia prepares for a possible imminent invasion of the Ukraine, the financial market’s Eye of Sauron must now grapple with this major
Sometimes, the conventional wisdom is unwise. This is one of those times.
The consensus has shifted. The Fed is expected to tighten a lot in 2022. But crowds are not always wise. Peaking inflation and moderating
The market volatility over the past few weeks is likely to be the new normal.
Investors are treading on thin ice. Fading fiscal stimulus, interest rate hikes, and high valuations are problematic. Soon, slowing earnings
Central bankers got ‘transitory’ wrong. But now they may be on the verge of a bigger mistake. Let’s hope not.
Slowing earnings, Chinese growth and French elections are likely to be more important for 2022 markets than inflation, fiscal policy or bond
We consider five provocative, challenging and even uncomfortable themes that could dominate the 2022 news cycle.
The Fed misjudged inflation in 2021. But only its reputation was damaged. In 2022, it must get inflation and much else right or else the global
Omicron rattled markets. And it exposed them. Flagging profits, peak valuations and economic uncertainty are today’s realities, not tomorrow’s