Believing erroneously in certainty is perilous — investors should be wary of certainty’s close cousin, consensus thinking.
Weekly Market Compass
The past week was marked by shocking images of violent protestors occupying the US Capitol, yet the horror barely registered in financial
The key risk to the markets in the year ahead is mistaking good outcomes for good news — the outcomes we all fervently hope to see are,
2020 has been a year of calculated risk. But periods of strong returns often spawn complacency and excessive confidence.
As the final weeks of 2020 wind down, investors should prepare themselves for the United Kingdom crashing out of the European Union in a hard
It is time for investors to consider the possibility of rising inflation, which is now more probable than at any time in the past two decades.
One year ago, if we were told the following twelve months would witness the worst global pandemic since 1918, precipitating the greatest global
Promoting recovery with all tools – monetary, fiscal and public health – should be the sole macroeconomic priority of the Biden Administration,
Rotation in markets is the next big opportunity. Value has a lot of room to make up for a decade of underperformance. But sometimes it pays
The 2020 elections may have delivered mixed political messages, but for investors the news is mostly positive. Here are the key take-aways.
Abraham Lincoln said that a house divided cannot stand. So, where does that leave us now?
In our view, the only unambiguous ‘win’ for risk assets is a ‘blue wave’, where Democrats convincingly win the White House and the
A common misperception is that Democrats are bad for markets. Such fears find little foundation in fact.
The events of recent years—trade conflict, geopolitical risk and the Covid-19 pandemic—have laid bare that extreme differences exist among
As 2020 draws to a close, investors are confronted with a binary challenge. How should they proceed?
In this time of extreme flux, perhaps the only definitive statement that can be made is that political, policy and economic sources of uncertainty
Flagging growth, depressed earnings, the risk of rising Covid-19 infection rates and unprecedented US election risk are forces that not even
The S&P 500 is down more than 7% in September, the Dow Jones 6% and the Nasdaq Composite more than 10%, into correction territory.
Bob Dylan’s lyrics resonate today against a backdrop of social and political unrest unlikely any time seen since he penned them. And even
September, and October, will probably contain a few nasty surprises. Get ready.
The choices voters will make in the US, Germany and Japan, could not be more consequential. No less may be at stake than the fate of liberal
This week, this missing Tetons will cast a metaphorical shadow over the Fed deliberations. The reason for their absence will be a powerful
Now that the world’s benchmark equity index—the S&P500—has closed in on its pre-pandemic and all-time highs, it’s useful to carefully
Despite a deep global recession, double-digit declines in worldwide corporate profitability, rising geo-political risk and no effective long-term