As inflation recedes bond yields are apt to fall.
Certain Uncertainty in the US Bond Market
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Economics
Dogs and Economics
Dogs demonstrably make their owners happier. As a result, dog-owners are likely to be more productive. Doggone it!
The Fed’s Done: What Next?
The Fed’s tightening cycle is done. Now comes the recession, for which Wall Street, Main Street and Pennsylvania Avenue are ill prepared.
Should Fiscal Policy Resemble Private Budgets?
Governments are not like individuals or companies. They have far greater borrowing capacity. But limits exist. It is time to think about them.
Does Anyone Care About Deficits?
In recent months, US bond yields have jumped. Surging government deficits are partly to blame. Will politicians respond?
Data Dependent?
The Fed is a self-described ‘data dependent’ decision-maker. But that’s not all. Its aversion to inflation risk and its abiding reliance
China’s Great Leap Backward
‘President Xi prioritizes political control over growth. He is getting his way, for better or worse’.
How Finance Became the Problem
Over time, finance has evolved from playing a crucial but merely intermediary role in the economy, to becoming the driving force behind most
The New Industrial Politics
Recent scholarship has done much to reopen the case in favor of selective government intervention to promote specific industries in particular
The Promise and Peril of Decarbonization
To achieve a just transition to renewables, the international community must enable emerging and developing economies to make the necessary
Are Stocks and Bonds Poised to Sell-Off?
In 2022, rising inflation triggered a simultaneous sell-off in stock and bond markets. Are we now poised for a repeat?
A Chinese Bubble Long in the Making
Owing to the one-child policy and the legacies of other less-appreciated Chinese development measures over the years, the stage has long been
We Need to Talk About Bank Supervision
With the debate over bank capital requirements heating up again, all those involved should pause to reflect on the root causes of this year’s
A Tragedy Is Unfolding in the Poorest Countries
The world’s 28 poorest countries are facing growing social, economic, and political distress, owing to rising debt burdens, diminishing
Who Can Trash China’s Economy Most?
Is China’s economy in real trouble, or is the pessimism unwarranted? The answer likely depends on whether Xi’s authoritarianism erodes
The Global Economy’s Real Enemy is Geopolitics, Not Protectionism
What some decry as protectionism and mercantilism is really a rebalancing toward addressing important national issues. The biggest risk to
Labor Day and the Resurgent American Worker
Labor Day 2023 is a good time to reflect on the growing power of the American worker and the political and economic implications.
China Must Avoid a Debt-Deflation Spiral
With high debt levels and falling consumer and producer prices, China faces the prospect of a vicious cycle whereby lower demand leads to
Imagining a Keynesian Revival
Arguments between free market orthodoxy and intervention obscure the need for powerful economic leadership.
Is Japan-style Deflation Coming to China?
China’s economy suffers from excesses in real estate, slowing GDP growth and deflation. Those trends will be difficult to reverse. China’s
Why Is US Inflation Falling?
“Economists are much maligned for the bad forecasts. That criticism doesn’t hold up when it comes to falling US inflation.” However
The Populist Advantage
“Disenchantment with free markets, liberalization and globalization has opened the door to populist, simplistic ’solutions’. They
Why Debt is Too Often Misunderstood
Understanding how private, public, and foreign debt are interrelated yields important insights into the workings of the economy. It also leads
AI and the Productivity Imperative
As it stands, the global economic outlook for the next decade appears grim. But a broad-based surge in productivity – fueled by the targeted