It is not difficult to fathom why the United States’ central bank is especially resistant to any quantum change in the existing financial
The Fed’s Wary Embrace of Digital Dollars
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The South China Sea’s Environmental Crisis
The environment is rarely served by great power politics. China’s territorial ambitions in the South China Sea are hastening the destruction
What Have You Done for me Lately?
The consensus has shifted. The Fed is expected to tighten a lot in 2022. But crowds are not always wise. Peaking inflation and moderating
Guns and Shots
Pandemic control and gun control offer important, and overlapping, lessons.
How China Views the Ukraine Crisis
China is watching the Ukraine crisis closely. It is a test of America’s resolve, and it could have important implications for geopolitical
A Whiff of Munich
With the United States and its NATO allies seeking further negotiations to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine, many have been quick to invoke
Investors Must Tackle Vaccine Inequity
It is time for investors to demand that boards of directors of pharmaceutical companies are held accountable to doing the right thing to reduce
Get Used to Volatility
The market volatility over the past few weeks is likely to be the new normal.
Why Did Almost Nobody See Inflation Coming?
Forecasting inflation is a staple of macroeconomic modeling, yet virtually all economists’ predictions for the United States in 2021 were
Regime Change in the Global Economy
Growth theory doesn’t make for pleasant reading these days. Indications point to challenges ahead.
A Bad Year for Markets?
Market fundamentals are shifting from tailwinds to headwinds. Investors ought to prepare for more volatile conditions.
Warning: Thin Ice Ahead
Investors are treading on thin ice. Fading fiscal stimulus, interest rate hikes, and high valuations are problematic. Soon, slowing earnings
The Power and Poison of MMT
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is misunderstood by its defenders and detractors. Elements of it can be useful, others are dangerous.
America’s Democratic Future
Demographics are friendly to Democrats. But without safeguards to voting rights, majorities may not matter.
Are They So Sure?
Central bankers got ‘transitory’ wrong. But now they may be on the verge of a bigger mistake. Let’s hope not.
Crime in Suites and Suits
The dramatic securities fraud trial of Elizabeth Holmes is front and center in the news. Yet, it is just another episode in the long history
The ECB’s Savvy Gradualism
Unlike the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank has no fiscal backstop and must worry about the cohesion of the eurozone, in addition
Is Capital Eating Labor’s Lunch?
Is labor really getting a raw deal? Measured properly, the evidence is not as grim as some suggest. Looking ahead, productivity remains paramount.
Market Drivers for 2022
Slowing earnings, Chinese growth and French elections are likely to be more important for 2022 markets than inflation, fiscal policy or bond
Why the Fed Must Tighten
The Fed at risk of losing their credibility as guarantors of price stability unless they now respond to inflation.
The Ghost of Christmas Inflation
In a pandemic, you can send people all the money in the world and they still won’t go out to dinner or book a flight, especially if those
History’s Barriers to European Joint Security
Although France and Germany are more reliant on each other than ever, the two heavyweights at the heart of Europe still have vastly different
2022 and Five Big Topics to Consider
We consider five provocative, challenging and even uncomfortable themes that could dominate the 2022 news cycle.
Does Japan Vindicate Modern Monetary Theory?
For decades, the Japanese government has amassed more and more debt without triggering higher borrowing costs or inflation. But there is no