If we can force ourselves to disengage from the moment, significant developments are taking place that could reshape our thinking about growth,
Productivity Stirrings
Continue Reading
Featured
The Trust-but-Verify Path to Net Zero
Comparisons between today’s China-US tensions and the Cold War are often superficial and misleading. But reviving the maxim that underpinned
Biden’s Misery Index
Historically, the Misery Index – the sum of the unemployment and inflation rates – has offered a sound benchmark for assessing an incumbent
Reject Indifference
Dreamers and innovators need hope the way others need oxygen, and it is our job to support them accordingly.
Putin and the Eye of Sauron
As Russia prepares for a possible imminent invasion of the Ukraine, the financial market’s Eye of Sauron must now grapple with this major
America’s Not-So-Great Inflation
The acceleration of US inflation in recent months has led many alarmed observers to point to parallels with the 1970s, when commodity prices
Realism About Foreign-Policy Realism
In a world of sovereign states, foreign-policy decisions naturally should account for national interests and the broader balance of power.
Banks and the Green Leap Forward
By imposing stricter capital requirements on fossil-fuel lending, governments and banking regulators can help to redirect a huge flow of funds
Wall Street is Wrong about Inflation
Sometimes, the conventional wisdom is unwise. This is one of those times.
The Fed’s Wary Embrace of Digital Dollars
It is not difficult to fathom why the United States’ central bank is especially resistant to any quantum change in the existing financial
The South China Sea’s Environmental Crisis
The environment is rarely served by great power politics. China’s territorial ambitions in the South China Sea are hastening the destruction
What Have You Done for me Lately?
The consensus has shifted. The Fed is expected to tighten a lot in 2022. But crowds are not always wise. Peaking inflation and moderating
Guns and Shots
Pandemic control and gun control offer important, and overlapping, lessons.
How China Views the Ukraine Crisis
China is watching the Ukraine crisis closely. It is a test of America’s resolve, and it could have important implications for geopolitical
A Whiff of Munich
With the United States and its NATO allies seeking further negotiations to prevent Russia from invading Ukraine, many have been quick to invoke
Investors Must Tackle Vaccine Inequity
It is time for investors to demand that boards of directors of pharmaceutical companies are held accountable to doing the right thing to reduce
Get Used to Volatility
The market volatility over the past few weeks is likely to be the new normal.
Why Did Almost Nobody See Inflation Coming?
Forecasting inflation is a staple of macroeconomic modeling, yet virtually all economists’ predictions for the United States in 2021 were
Regime Change in the Global Economy
Growth theory doesn’t make for pleasant reading these days. Indications point to challenges ahead.
A Bad Year for Markets?
Market fundamentals are shifting from tailwinds to headwinds. Investors ought to prepare for more volatile conditions.
Warning: Thin Ice Ahead
Investors are treading on thin ice. Fading fiscal stimulus, interest rate hikes, and high valuations are problematic. Soon, slowing earnings
The Power and Poison of MMT
Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is misunderstood by its defenders and detractors. Elements of it can be useful, others are dangerous.
America’s Democratic Future
Demographics are friendly to Democrats. But without safeguards to voting rights, majorities may not matter.
Are They So Sure?
Central bankers got ‘transitory’ wrong. But now they may be on the verge of a bigger mistake. Let’s hope not.