A common misperception is that Democrats are bad for markets. Such fears find little foundation in fact. Continue Reading
Unpacking Emerging Markets
The events of recent years—trade conflict, geopolitical risk and the Covid-19 pandemic—have laid bare that extreme differences exist among emerging economies, separating the best from the rest as regards emerging equity, fixed income and currency markets. Continue Reading
It’s A Humpy Bumpy World
As 2020 draws to a close, investors are confronted with a binary challenge. How should they proceed? Continue Reading
The Fog of War
In this time of extreme flux, perhaps the only definitive statement that can be made is that political, policy and economic sources of uncertainty are on the rise. There is a palpable sense of a spreading fog, where facts are hard to discern with confidence. Continue Reading
Fasten your seatbelts
Flagging growth, depressed earnings, the risk of rising Covid-19 infection rates and unprecedented US election risk are forces that not even the Federal Reserve may be able to offset. Continue Reading
Head Fake
The S&P 500 is down more than 7% in September, the Dow Jones 6% and the Nasdaq Composite more than 10%, into correction territory. Continue Reading
The times, they are a-changin’
Bob Dylan’s lyrics resonate today against a backdrop of social and political unrest unlikely any time seen since he penned them. And even in the mundane world of investing, investors must now also recognize that the times are ‘a-changin’. Continue Reading
The cruelest month
September, and October, will probably contain a few nasty surprises. Get ready. Continue Reading
Chadwick Boseman Tribute
A Marvel Tribute to Chadwick Boseman Continue Reading
Politics, Just Not Now
The choices voters will make in the US, Germany and Japan, could not be more consequential. No less may be at stake than the fate of liberal democracy. But for the financial markets, the only story that really matters for now is the continuing willingness of central bankers everywhere to do whatever it takes. Continue Reading
In the Shadow of the Tetons
This week, this missing Tetons will cast a metaphorical shadow over the Fed deliberations. The reason for their absence will be a powerful reminder that we still have our most difficult climbs ahead. Continue Reading
What is the market telling us?
Now that the world’s benchmark equity index—the S&P500—has closed in on its pre-pandemic and all-time highs, it’s useful to carefully examine valuations and drivers of market performance. Continue Reading
No Time For Complacency
Despite a deep global recession, double-digit declines in worldwide corporate profitability, rising geo-political risk and no effective long-term solution to the Covid-19 pandemic, global equities continue their impressive advance. Continue Reading
John Lewis’ Final Words
In a special Last Word, Morgan Freeman reads the words of John Lewis’ final essay, which he requested be published in the New York Times on the day of his funeral: “Together, You Can Redeem the Soul of Our Nation.” Continue Reading
Extrapolation Risk
Despite a shellacking from Congress during public hearings, a day later the biggest information technology stocks delivered mostly robust revenue and earnings results for the second quarter. Continue Reading
Horror Show
Investing is not, statistically speaking, a horror show. But at discrete intervals, it can be useful to keep an ear out for dissonance. Continue Reading
Fly Fishing and the Market
Investors, it seems, are resigned to following the main current of the river. That may be a good strategy for a boater looking to drift along effortlessly, but an angler knows that fishing in the same pool as everyone else rarely leads to anything except disappointment. Continue Reading
Inspiration
The pandemic should be bringing nations together in the face of our common threat. Instead we see nationalism and borders closing. So here is an inspiring reminder that 250 miles above Earth, we are all as one. Continue Reading
Wanted: New Leadership
Another week and more rising global equity markets. But also, more outperformance by the market’s stalwarts —growth, technology and momentum. Continue Reading
TINA, Meet Keynes
TINA – There Is No Alternative – is a popular Wall Street acronym describing a key reason why equities remain so popular. TINA is about to face a big test. Continue Reading
A Bend In The Road?
After a powerful and nearly uninterrupted rally dating from late March, global equities lurched sharply lower this past Thursday, before staging a hopeful recovery on Friday. Continue Reading
Recovery or Relapse?
Beneath the market’s joyful response to inflection points, levels of spending, output and joblessness remain bleak. Continue Reading
Pandemic, Payrolls, Protests and Politics
Wall Street’s favorite adage, ‘climb a wall of worry’, may soon be put to test. Following the powerful equity market rally of the past two months, investors face unanswered questions regarding sustainable pandemic control, growing unemployment, an uncertain economic recovery, uneven corporate profitability, heightened default risk, opaque policy responses and record valuations. Continue Reading
Where’s the Bottom?
Alongside the US Memorial Day holiday, we explore the latest high frequency indicators of global economic activity. Our aim is to provide a snapshot of the collapse in economic activity, and also to see whether and where a bottom may be forming. Continue Reading
Re-Opening Does Not Signal Buy
Markets dipped this past week. Might this signal the end of the recent rebound? Or is it merely a pause, with further gains to come? Continue Reading
Update On A COVID-19 Vaccine
Humankind has never had a more urgent task than creating broad immunity for coronavirus. Realistically, if we’re going to return to normal, we need to develop a safe, effective vaccine—and we need to do it faster than we’ve ever developed a vaccine before. Continue Reading
The Covid-19 Mental Health Crisis
Mental health is a huge problem in the United States. About one-fifth of all Americans grapple with psychological disorders, and only half of them get treatment. Continue Reading
On the same page—for better or worse
This past week equity markets continued their impressive recovery from their Covid-19 lows. Continue Reading
Wanderers
Are you feeling cooped up, stir-crazy? No wonder – even after 400 generations in villages and cities, we are still nomadic wanderers at heart. Here is a brilliant short-film to inspire you for the days when we can journey again. Continue Reading
Market Compass: Six Headwinds
Markets recovered strongly in April. US equities enjoyed one of their best months since the 1930s, credit markets stabilized, and even depressed crude oil prices rebounded sharply. Continue Reading