Why Interest Rates Will Come Down
Although the ‘recency bias’ tempts our minds to assume today’s high interest rates are here to stay, the fundamentals of economics suggest
Is Banking too Important to Be Left to Bankers?
The Silicon Valley Bank debacle has many lessons, starting with the conclusion that banking may simply be too important to be left to the
It Could Happen in 2023
Investing in private markets has been all the rage. That’s a warning, not an endorsement. The risks of disruption in private markets are
What We Learned in 2022
2022 was a year of significant events, too many of them tragic. Yet, in each of them we also find reasons for hope.
The Midterms’ Red Ripple Delivers Uncertainty to the Markets
In a surprise to many observers (ourselves included), the midterm elections proved to be more closely contested than most polls and political
Trash Talking the Fed
Fed Chairman Powell took flak for suggesting the Fed Funds rate is now neutral. The criticism isn’t warranted.
Forget Inflation, Think Recession
The arrival of ‘peak inflation’ is not sufficient to calm investor nerves when recession and falling corporate profits loom.
A Narrow Runway for a Soft Landing
History does not offer many examples of recession-free Fed tightening cycles. Will this be an exception?
Caution: Curves Ahead
Bond markets are signaling precarious conditions ahead. Investor should take note.
Slowdown Ahead
Investors continue to underestimate global GDP and earnings growth risks.
The Economic Consequences of War
The economic and market implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine will be profound.