Despite a deep global recession, double-digit declines in worldwide corporate profitability, rising geo-political risk and no effective long-term solution to the Covid-19 pandemic, global equities continue their impressive advance. Continue Reading
John Lewis’ Final Words
In a special Last Word, Morgan Freeman reads the words of John Lewis’ final essay, which he requested be published in the New York Times on the day of his funeral: “Together, You Can Redeem the Soul of Our Nation.” Continue Reading
Extrapolation Risk
Despite a shellacking from Congress during public hearings, a day later the biggest information technology stocks delivered mostly robust revenue and earnings results for the second quarter. Continue Reading
Horror Show
Investing is not, statistically speaking, a horror show. But at discrete intervals, it can be useful to keep an ear out for dissonance. Continue Reading
Fly Fishing and the Market
Investors, it seems, are resigned to following the main current of the river. That may be a good strategy for a boater looking to drift along effortlessly, but an angler knows that fishing in the same pool as everyone else rarely leads to anything except disappointment. Continue Reading
Inspiration
The pandemic should be bringing nations together in the face of our common threat. Instead we see nationalism and borders closing. So here is an inspiring reminder that 250 miles above Earth, we are all as one. Continue Reading
Wanted: New Leadership
Another week and more rising global equity markets. But also, more outperformance by the market’s stalwarts —growth, technology and momentum. Continue Reading
TINA, Meet Keynes
TINA – There Is No Alternative – is a popular Wall Street acronym describing a key reason why equities remain so popular. TINA is about to face a big test. Continue Reading
A Bend In The Road?
After a powerful and nearly uninterrupted rally dating from late March, global equities lurched sharply lower this past Thursday, before staging a hopeful recovery on Friday. Continue Reading
Recovery or Relapse?
Beneath the market’s joyful response to inflection points, levels of spending, output and joblessness remain bleak. Continue Reading
Pandemic, Payrolls, Protests and Politics
Wall Street’s favorite adage, ‘climb a wall of worry’, may soon be put to test. Following the powerful equity market rally of the past two months, investors face unanswered questions regarding sustainable pandemic control, growing unemployment, an uncertain economic recovery, uneven corporate profitability, heightened default risk, opaque policy responses and record valuations. Continue Reading
Where’s the Bottom?
Alongside the US Memorial Day holiday, we explore the latest high frequency indicators of global economic activity. Our aim is to provide a snapshot of the collapse in economic activity, and also to see whether and where a bottom may be forming. Continue Reading
Re-Opening Does Not Signal Buy
Markets dipped this past week. Might this signal the end of the recent rebound? Or is it merely a pause, with further gains to come? Continue Reading
Update On A COVID-19 Vaccine
Humankind has never had a more urgent task than creating broad immunity for coronavirus. Realistically, if we’re going to return to normal, we need to develop a safe, effective vaccine—and we need to do it faster than we’ve ever developed a vaccine before. Continue Reading
The Covid-19 Mental Health Crisis
Mental health is a huge problem in the United States. About one-fifth of all Americans grapple with psychological disorders, and only half of them get treatment. Continue Reading
On the same page—for better or worse
This past week equity markets continued their impressive recovery from their Covid-19 lows. Continue Reading
Wanderers
Are you feeling cooped up, stir-crazy? No wonder – even after 400 generations in villages and cities, we are still nomadic wanderers at heart. Here is a brilliant short-film to inspire you for the days when we can journey again. Continue Reading
Market Compass: Six Headwinds
Markets recovered strongly in April. US equities enjoyed one of their best months since the 1930s, credit markets stabilized, and even depressed crude oil prices rebounded sharply. Continue Reading
Calmer, But For How Long?
As we move into the last week of April, market jitters appear to have begun to subside. Even oil prices recouped some of their dramatic declines. Continue Reading
The Chosen Few
Global equity indices continue to recover. Much of the related commentary concludes that investors are heartened by signs of pandemic curve-flattening and hopes that economic activity can resume more quickly and broadly than previously assumed. Continue Reading
Markets are Mistaken
Last week, markets rebounded. Major equity indices have now recouped half their losses from their Covid-19 driven lows. Continue Reading
A Flat Curve is Not Enough
Investors ought to be wary of overstating the economic and market benefits of pandemic curve flattening. Continue Reading
Uncertainty, Risk and Asset Prices
The pandemic remains the sole driver of global markets. That reality makes fundamental analysis difficult, if not impossible. Continue Reading
History Has Something To Say
Today, it is tempting to jettison conventional thinking about asset prices and their relationship to the fundamentals. Continue Reading
Market Volatility Explained
This morning, March 18th, global equity markets are again in steep decline, despite the stepped up fiscal and monetary commitments announced in the past few days. Although the policy steps to address the pandemic and its economic consequences are becoming more realistic, they are likely not enough to stabilize markets for two reasons. First, few… Continue Reading
Thoughts on Surviving this Avalanche
Public policy is now moving on two fronts: containing the pandemic and offering economic stimulus. But will that be enough to draw support financial markets? Continue Reading
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure
Global risk assets had another tumultuous week, responding to the spread of the coronavirus, paltry efforts to mitigate its economic fallout, and Biden’s ’super Tuesday’. Continue Reading
The Coronavirus Infects the Markets
Global risk assets sold off heavily last week on concerns that the coronavirus pandemic may significantly dent growth and corporate earnings. Global equity indices suffered their largest weekly losses since the financial crisis. Continue Reading
Rising Uncertainty
Markets have suffered a hiccup in recent days, with stock prices dipping at the end of the past week. Long-term interest rates are once again moving lower. Continue Reading
Navigating the Virus
This was the week when markets began to succumb to worries about the spread of the coronavirus. Continue Reading