While Japan’s move toward rearmament is welcome, the embrace of Tomahawk missiles and hypersonic weapons alone will not force China to stop
The Limits of Japan’s Military Awakening
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China and the Sovereign-Debt Bomb
A failure to get ahead of the developing world’s looming debt crises would represent a moral failure, and would also greatly dampen world
What Price McCarthy?
The Republican extremists who blocked their own party’s choice for Speaker of the US House of Representatives have gotten their way,
Secular Stagnation, Not Secular Stagflation
The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have left most of the world reeling from the effects of stagflation. But as long
China’s Brutal COVID Winter
As most developed economies learned almost three years ago, reducing COVID-19 infection rates in high-risk populations requires self-distancing
What in the World Will Happen in 2023?
The sleeper story of the coming year will be Japan’s emergence as a major geopolitical actor. And, for the first time since the fall of
More War Means More Inflation
Advanced economies and emerging markets are increasingly engaged in necessary “wars” – some real, some metaphorical – that
Is It Time to Give Up on 1.5°C?
The world economy’s carbon intensity is declining at nowhere near the rate needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C. But while continuing
Whose Rule of Law?
Figuring out Ukraine’s post-conflict future will be essential not just for the Ukrainian victims of Russia’s invasion, but also for Europe
What Happens After the War?
Figuring out Ukraine’s post-conflict future will be essential not just for the Ukrainian victims of Russia’s invasion, but also for Europe
The Promise of Nuclear Fusion
We may be on the cusp of commercially available nuclear fusion technology, which would usher in a societal paradigm shift.
New Year, New Congress, New Economic Risks
With almost everyone having been blindsided by surging inflation and other unanticipated developments, neither economic nor political forecasters
Ten Lessons from the Return of History
One thing we learned in 2022 is that war between countries, thought by more than a few academics to be obsolete, is anything but. And that
Debunking Solar Geoengineering
Proponents of solar geoengineering say that lowering Earth’s average temperature by reflecting sunlight into space will tackle global
What US Leadership Can Do for Nature
Although the United States is not a party to the Convention on Biological Diversity, its heavyweight status affords it ample opportunities
The Climate Crisis Is Also a Health Crisis
The interplay between climate change and the spread of deadly pathogens could herald an era of global devastation and disruption. To avert
War Over Taiwan?
For five decades, both China and the US benefited from the time they had bought on the question of the island’s status. To prevent what
The Unavoidable Crash
After years of ultra-loose fiscal, monetary, and credit policies and the onset of major negative supply shocks, stagflationary pressures are
Will Crypto Survive?
With a storyline full of celebrities, politicians, sex, and drugs, the future looks bright for producers of feature films and documentaries
America’s Silent Progressive Majority
The unanticipated outcome of the US 2022 midterm election shows that Americans can sense the challenges they face, and believe that they can
Will the West Give in to Russia?
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine nine months ago, the West has not only delivered nearly $100 billion in aid to Ukraine, but also imposed
Deglobalization Is a Climate Threat
Globalization may have fallen out of favor in recent years, but preserving it is an environmental imperative. Effective, coordinated responses
The World Cup’s Education Goal
After the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan 15 months ago, its leaders broke their promise to allow girls to continue pursuing secondary
The Republicans Lose with Trump
For four decades after World War II, climate change and job-displacing artificial intelligence were not on anyone’s mind, and terms like