The Great Moderation has given way to the Great Stagflation, which will be characterized by instability and a confluence of slow-motion negative
The Stagflationary Debt Crisis Is Here
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When the Fed Stops Trying
One can debate whether there is still a narrow path by which the United States could avoid both secular stagnation and stagflation in the
No Security Without Climate Security
Climate change poses an existential threat to humanity, but the US defense apparatus has not treated it accordingly, because it does not fit
The Final Quarter
In American sports, the final quarter is often when the game is decided. Investors hope Q4 will salvage an awful year — they may be disappointed.
Geopolitical Davids and Goliaths
The world’s largest and most well-established powers are all stuck in traps created by their own historical obsessions – be it memories
Preparing for the Next Global Catastrophe
The end of the pandemic may be in sight, but COVID-19 could be a harbinger of future calamities. If global leaders do not establish equitable
Straws and Camels’ Backs
The economic and financial market outcomes now unfolding will be unpleasant, but they are not likely to be cataclysmic.
Transforming the Economics and Governance of Water
Water-related crises around the world have shown that current systems of governance and economic organization are unsuited for a world altered
China’s Future Will Reflect Russia’s
China learned from Russia’s post-1991 experience and pursued its economic liberalization with more care. But it ultimately could not avoid
Is the Pound Close to the Breaking Point?
While the pound’s recent declines may evoke memories of the 1992 “Black Wednesday” crisis, sterling’s weakness does not
ESG Is Just a New Tool to Solve an Old Problem
Environmental, social, and governance investing is fundamentally about finding new ways to manage risk.
Requiem for an Empire
Since World War II, Britain’s influence in the world has relied on its “special relationship” with the United States, its position as
Climate Injustice and the Curse of Illusory Growth
Advanced economies have long relied principally on developing countries for primary commodities and natural resources to fuel their industries
Are Markets Headed Down?
It is premature to conclude that weak profits will force equity valuations down significantly.
Whither the ESG Revolution?
Many companies are promising to align their objectives – including how they measure their performance – with broader imperatives relating
How Much Has the Ukraine War Changed Germany?
Germany faces no shortage of crises, from the Russian security threat and political instability among Western allies to democratic backsliding
Is Nuclear War Inevitable?
Russian aggression and nuclear saber rattling have reminded us that the likelihood of nuclear war is a matter of both independent and interdependent
Laboring Days
Summer is over and it is time for investors to get back to work. It may be hard labor.
Will Russia or the West Win the Economic and Financial Battle?
After six months of unprecedented Western sanctions, Russia’s economic situation, though bad, is arguably better than most observers expected.
Economics in the New Age of National Security
In an era of strategic competition, economics may have to rethink core principles, including comparative advantage and the gains from trade.
The Real Stakes at Jackson Hole this Year
Fighting inflation should not distract policymakers from the need to repair a broken global trading system.
Jackson Whole?
The Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference is about to begin — don’t expect much clarity.
False Advertising for the Inflation Reduction Act
Listen to US President Joe Biden and other proponents of the recently signed Inflation Reduction Act, and you would think that America has
American CHIPS Off the Chinese Block
America’s world-leading semiconductor industry is a testament to the advantages a competitive market economy has over a command economy