The View From Argentina

The View From Argentina

Argentina is in the news again. And yes, it might default on its sovereign debt again. By some counts, this would be its ninth default in its modern history. The drama is unfolding in the next few weeks. The clock started ticking on Friday May 22nd when Argentina failed to make a $500M bond payment. Negotiations are in full swing between the government and creditors to reach a restructuring deal. The game is on, the result uncertain. There is hope a deal will be reached with the help of pressure from the IMF.

The picture was bleak a few months ago before the pandemic struck and now it is bleaker. But the situation is not hopeless.

Just like the rest of the world, Argentina has been suffering from the COVID-19 pandemic, but the result so far has been “better” than in other places. After almost three months from the first case detected, Argentina has had fewer than 600 total deaths. Compare this to 100,000 in the U.S. or 25,000 in Brazil. Even when controlling for the population, it’s a low number. Argentina has 10 deaths per million while the U.S. has 300, and Italy, 540. 

The main reason its pandemic response has been so effective is due to the early, mandatory national lockdown that began on March 20th when Argentina had just over one hundred cases. Travel restrictions were put in place, borders closed, and movement curtailed. Schools and universities were also shut down countrywide. In a nation with a rebellious bent, the lockdown has been taken well with few protests and massive compliance. Google mobility reports show 70-80% decrease in activity. These policies have not only flattened the COVID-19 curve, but drastically slowed the spread of the virus in many regions. Some provinces and small cities are practically virus free and returning to some degree of normalcy. Buenos Aires and other major cities are still in lockdown and although new cases are rising, the numbers are relatively low – about 500-700 daily. Argentina’s healthcare system hasn’t been overwhelmed. 

The government used these past two months on lockdown to bolster an under-resourced health system, in many districts doubling intensive care beds, building emergency hospitals, turning hotels to makeshift healthcare units for mild cases, securing respirators, COVID-19 tests,  protective gear, and training medical staff. Safety protocols have been set up and supply chains have mostly been maintained with few out of stock items in stores and supermarkets. Additionally, Argentine scientists have developed their own fast COVID-19 detection kits in less than 60 days. These kits are already in production.

On the economic front, the Argentine government has been quick to shore up the fallout from the lockdown. It has set up an emergency income fund for informal workers that will reach 11 million Argentines, provide a bonus to their main transfer social programs and hand out food and basic items to millions. It has also directly paid 50% of the salaries of many small businesses, up to 1.2 million workers, and set up zero interest loans for some businesses and independent workers with government backing. There have been more than a few hick-ups along the way, including scandals, but the health result is clear: fewer deaths compared with other countries at the same stage and no major resistance to the draconian health measures.

All these economic measures have helped Argentina, its workers and businesses avoid massive death tolls, the total collapse of its economy and widespread unemployment. Job losses have risen, but the relative numbers pale next to the United States.  

Yet, the economic pain is massive and deep. National tax revenue was down 30% in real terms in April while government expenditures rose 50% due to the costs of the emergency measures. 

Economic activity has plunged, with whole sectors shut down by the government decreed lockdown (construction, service providers, tourism, retail), and others hard hit by people staying home. During the first month of the national lockdown, according to economist Marina Dal Poggetto, a typical day saw 40% less economic activity than before the lockdown. The IMF projected a 5.7% drop in GDP, and that is probably optimistic given the lockdown is likely to go on for a number of additional months in the main cities. 

But, COVID-19 driven economic probems need to be contextualized against Argentina’s difficult history. Poverty has been high in Argentina for decades; 2019 ended with a 35% poverty rate due in part to the slow motion crisis of the last two years of Macri’s government and the longest transition of power in Argentina’s history. There are no current estimates, but given that close to a third of the Argentine economy is informal and has been decimated by the lockdown and the pandemic, we can expect poverty rates to increase considerably in the following months.

The Argentine Central Bank has footed the bill so far, printing money as needed and will likely continue to do so until the crisis ends. But, as the saying goes, there is no free lunch. The pandemic combined with the impending debt default means that the gap between the black market dollar and the official dollar went from $65 official and $85 on black March 20th, to $70 official and $124 black on May 27th. It is worth remembering that Argentina is de facto a bi-monetary economy. Transactions are in pesos, but savings and major ticket item accounting is in U.S. dollars.

Argentina has little choice other than to print money. Credit markets are all but closed, there is no real national savings and tax receipts will continue to decline. Yet printing money won’t be painless for Argentina. With an inflation rate of 54% in 2019 and this level of expansion in the stock of money, Argentina is navigating very dangerous inflationary waters.

Old and new saviors are unlikely to come to Argentina’s rescue this time around. Agricultural commodity prices have declined and will stay low for some time as world demand falters and as the U.S. unloads grain reserves stockpiled during the U.S.-China trade war. Vaca Muerta, the huge shale oil deposits that were Argentina’s best hope to secure hard currency and energy independence, is all but dead given the decline in the price of oil and the economic uncertainty in Argentina. Brazil, one of Argentina’s main trade partners, is undergoing considerable economic and political turmoil. The Mercosur trade alliance is shaking and Bolsonaro hates the new elected government of Argentina.  Moreover, Brazil is now experiencing extreme growth in its COVID-19 curve, and has the second largest count of infections worldwide. 

Even if Argentina avoids a debt default, its recovery will be slow and the danger of runaway inflation high. The great challenge now is navigating between the economic slowdown caused by the pandemic and the dual pressures of inflation and the exchange rate.

But never count Argentina out. Argentina has been in and out of major economic crises many times during the past 100 years. This has created resilience and flexibility, inventiveness and also resources: Argentines have US$300 billion in cash and assets sitting outside of the Argentine financial system – close to the amount owed by Argentina to external and internal creditors.

The best possible scenario for Argentina and its creditors is a deal to restructure the debt. Both will be worse off if they don’t. To avoid an inflationary spiral, Argentina has to minimize money printing without leaving the poorer sectors to suffer unfairly from the lockdown. Many sectors, for example, have negotiated temporary wage reductions of between 10 to 25% during the lockdown, but government employees in non-essential areas have not, even though government revenue has plummeted. The gap between the official and the black market dollar needs to be reduced now to avoid a sharp future jump in the future that creates inflationary pressures. The government also must avoid excessive price freezes and distortions that drive government deficits through subsidies and future sharp price increases.  And of course, it is paramount for Argentina to continue the efforts made under the earlier government to better integrate itself into the world economy. 

In a break from its’ past practices, Argentina did the responsible thing when faced with COVID-19 and accepted short-term pain to protect its citizens from widespread death. We shall now see whether it can replicate this wisdom on the economic front.


Martin is a former academic turned entrepreneur in education, medicine and technology. He studied Philosophy at Princeton and received his PhD in Sociology from Yale. After 6 years as a professor at Cornell and NYU Buenos Aires, he started Tipitap, where he has been creating Digital Products in education and healthcare for the past 10 years. Tipitap won Best App in iTunes Rewind Education, and Best International Company at Launch EDU. His current venture DermicVR creates virtual reality experiences to distract from painful and stressful medical procedures such as blood draw and vaccinations.

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The solvent for the production of family RSO is typically gas, alcohol and even kerosene, which instead of curing, poison. Alcohols and their like hinder cannabinoids, therefore in reality, they don’t bring anything new to the medical world. Marijuana oil has already marked a brand-new age in which guy stopped to fear what is unidentified, and began to uncover what our ancestors had actually already seen and utilize the significant capacity, initially look, a little strange relationships, associated primarily with pathology. Medical marijuana, contrary to its name, does not suggest fermented female inflorescences and leaves containing psychedelic substances coiled in so-called “Joints”, but an advantageous oil without psychoactive THC. 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  35. Did you understand these facts on CBD OIL and Full Spectrum CBD Hemp Oil? Cannabinoids are separated from hemp using supercritical CO2 extraction. Thanks to contemporary technology, the resulting option is clean, devoid of unnecessary waxes and heavy metals, naturally present in the plant, and the sucked liquid has a normal, oily consistency. CBD oil consists of cannabidiol as a base active ingredient and may include only trace quantities of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). It is recommended by physicians and pharmacists as an antioxidant and compound that obstructs the action of proinflammatory cytokines (proteins), e.g. in Crohn’s disease or ulcerative intestine. RSO oil has a low CBD material, while high THC. The synergistic (enhancing) action of CBD and THC relative to each other is used here. Both cannabinoids can do much more together than when utilized separately. Both marijuana oil type CBD and RSO also include other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). The trick is not, however, that CBD typically has actually a composition broadened to include flavones, flavonoids, terpenes, terpenoids, amino acids and omega acids. The difference is mainly due to motives directing humankind to use one or the other product. CBD medical cannabis oil is a rather useful mix of cannabinoids, developed to safeguard against 21st century disease. It’s finest to use all of these substances together, as nature developed them and confined in cannabis inflorescences. It ends up that cannabidiol improves the results of cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG), and flavones or flavonoids improve the absorption of these compounds. Omega-6 and omega-3 highly nourish the body and do not allow to alter, which speed up the aging procedure of the organism and boost the development of cancer. Oil of marijuana in a sort of pastime APR contains percentages of CBD, balanced by the existence of THC. Makers concentrate on the synergistic effect of one compound relative to the other, while abandoning the existence of CBC and CBG. Why such a decision? – Modern clinical research study shows that CBD + THC deal with serious autoimmune diseases, while CBC or CBG show minimal activity in the presence of both substances, much like flavonoids, flavones or terpenes, therefore their content in the service seems to be unnecessary. In addition, the marijuana pressure from which THC and CBD are obtained include negligible quantities of other cannabinoids. RSO oil is completely illegal in Poland, which is why it can not be gotten in any legally operating store on the marketplace. Obviously, there are a number of amateur approaches for obtaining it, but it’s excellent to know that compounds acquired artificially in home laboratories doubt, untried, and the effect unknown. The solvent for the production of family RSO is normally gas, alcohol and even kerosene, which instead of curing, poison. Alcohols and their like hinder cannabinoids, therefore in truth, they don’t bring anything brand-new to the medical world. Marijuana oil has already marked a brand-new age in which man stopped to fear what is unidentified, and began to find what our ancestors had actually already discovered and utilize the substantial capacity, in the beginning glance, a little unusual relationships, associated mainly with pathology. Medical cannabis, contrary to its name, does not indicate fermented female inflorescences and leaves consisting of psychoactive substances coiled in so-called “Joints”, however a helpful oil without psychedelic THC. A standard individual, after taking dosages of medicinal marijuana and accomplishing the appropriate state of cannabinoids in the blood, can take pleasure in increased resistance, lowered vulnerability to cancer, postponed aging and decreased threat of stroke or cardiovascular disease. CBD oil contains cannabidiol as a base ingredient and might include only trace amounts of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). RSO oil has a low CBD material, while high THC. Both cannabis oil type CBD and RSO likewise include other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). CBD medical cannabis oil is a rather beneficial mix of cannabinoids, developed to safeguard against 21st century disease. Oil of marijuana in a kind of hobby APR contains small amounts of CBD, stabilized by the existence of THC.

  36. Did you know these facts on CBD OIL and Full Spectrum CBD Hemp Oil? Cannabinoids are isolated from hemp using supercritical CO2 extraction. Thanks to modern innovation, the resulting option is tidy, without heavy metals and unneeded waxes, naturally present in the plant, and the drawn liquid has a typical, oily consistency. CBD oil contains cannabidiol as a base ingredient and might contain only trace quantities of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). It is advised by medical professionals and pharmacists as an antioxidant and substance that obstructs the action of proinflammatory cytokines (proteins), e.g. in Crohn’s illness or ulcerative intestinal tract. RSO oil has a low CBD material, while high THC. Naturally, the crucial task of RSO is to cause a psychedelic result, although it can also stimulate “ill” brain structures. It is worth understanding that supplementation of this type is mostly used by people to whom basic treatment does not bring relief in illness. The synergistic (enhancing) action of CBD and THC relative to each other is utilized here. When utilized individually, both cannabinoids can do much more together than. In addition, they collectively promote the department of inactive afferent neuron, nurture the fatty envelope of the nerves, and prevent myelin inflammation that triggers loss of function in some autoimmune diseases. There are likewise stories where cannabis in its natural form softened spasticity, lowered the frequency of convulsions and seizures, and reduced undesirable scrapie in Parkinson’s disease. This is where the concept of receiving RSO, planned only for chronically ill people, originated . Both cannabis oil type CBD and RSO likewise include other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). The trick is not, nevertheless, that CBD often has a composition expanded to include flavones, flavonoids, terpenes, terpenoids, amino acids and omega acids. The difference is mainly due to intentions directing mankind to use one or the other item. CBD medical marijuana oil is a rather helpful blend of cannabinoids, created to safeguard versus 21st century disease. It’s finest to use all of these compounds together, as nature produced them and confined in marijuana inflorescences. Oil of cannabis in a kind of hobby APR consists of small amounts of CBD, stabilized by the presence of THC. – Modern clinical research shows that CBD + THC cope with major autoimmune diseases, while CBC or CBG reveal very little activity in the presence of both compounds, simply like terpenes, flavones or flavonoids, therefore their content in the service seems to be unneeded. In addition, the cannabis strain from which THC and CBD are obtained include minimal amounts of other cannabinoids. Cannabis oil has actually currently marked a new period in which male stopped to fear what is unidentified, and started to find what our ancestors had actually already discovered and use the considerable capacity, in the beginning glance, a little strange relationships, associated mainly with pathology. Medical cannabis, contrary to its name, does not mean fermented female inflorescences and leaves consisting of psychedelic compounds coiled in so-called “Joints”, but a helpful oil without psychedelic THC. A standard individual, after taking doses of medicinal marijuana and accomplishing the suitable state of cannabinoids in the blood, can delight in increased immunity, lowered susceptibility to cancer, postponed aging and lowered threat of stroke or cardiac arrest. CBD oil contains cannabidiol as a base ingredient and may contain only trace quantities of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). RSO oil has a low CBD content, while high THC. Both marijuana oil type CBD and RSO likewise include other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). CBD medical marijuana oil is a rather helpful blend of cannabinoids, developed to protect versus 21st century disease. Oil of cannabis in a kind of pastime APR consists of small amounts of CBD, balanced by the existence of THC.

  37. Did you know these facts on CBD OIL and Full Spectrum CBD Hemp Oil? Cannabinoids are separated from hemp using supercritical CO2 extraction. Thanks to contemporary innovation, the resulting option is tidy, devoid of unneeded waxes and heavy metals, naturally present in the plant, and the drawn liquid has a typical, oily consistency. CBD oil includes cannabidiol as a base component and might contain just trace quantities of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). It is recommended by physicians and pharmacists as an antioxidant and substance that blocks the action of proinflammatory cytokines (proteins), e.g. in Crohn’s illness or ulcerative intestine. RSO oil has a low CBD content, while high THC. The synergistic (enhancing) action of CBD and THC relative to each other is used here. Both cannabinoids can do much more together than when utilized independently. Both marijuana oil type CBD and RSO also contain other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). The trick is not, however, that CBD often has actually a composition expanded to include flavones, flavonoids, terpenes, terpenoids, amino acids and omega acids. The distinction is primarily due to motives directing humanity to use one or the other product. CBD medical marijuana oil is a rather useful mix of cannabinoids, designed to secure against 21st century disease. It’s finest to use all of these compounds together, as nature created them and enclosed in cannabis inflorescences. Oil of marijuana in a sort of hobby APR includes small amounts of CBD, balanced by the presence of THC. Manufacturers concentrate on the synergistic impact of one compound relative to the other, while abandoning the presence of CBC and CBG. Why such a decision? – Modern scientific research study reveals that CBD + THC cope with severe autoimmune diseases, while CBC or CBG show very little activity in the existence of both compounds, similar to terpenes, flavonoids or flavones, therefore their content in the solution seems to be unneeded. In addition, the cannabis pressure from which THC and CBD are derived include negligible amounts of other cannabinoids. RSO oil is entirely prohibited in Poland, which is why it can not be obtained in any lawfully operating shop on the market. Of course, there are a number of amateur methods for obtaining it, however it’s good to understand that compounds gotten artificially in home labs are uncertain, untested, and the impact unknown. The solvent for the production of home RSO is usually fuel, alcohol and even kerosene, which instead of treating, poison. Alcohols and their like impair cannabinoids, therefore in reality, they do not bring anything new to the medical world. Marijuana oil has already marked a brand-new era in which guy stopped to fear what is unknown, and started to uncover what our forefathers had currently seen and utilize the considerable potential, at first look, a little strange relationships, associated mainly with pathology. Medical marijuana, contrary to its name, does not mean fermented female inflorescences and leaves containing psychedelic compounds coiled in so-called “Joints”, however a helpful oil without psychoactive THC. A basic person, after taking doses of medicinal cannabis and accomplishing the suitable state of cannabinoids in the blood, can take pleasure in increased immunity, minimized susceptibility to cancer, postponed aging and reduced threat of stroke or cardiac arrest. CBD oil includes cannabidiol as a base component and might consist of only trace quantities of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). RSO oil has a low CBD material, while high THC. Both cannabis oil type CBD and RSO also consist of other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). CBD medical cannabis oil is a rather helpful mix of cannabinoids, created to safeguard against 21st century illness. Oil of marijuana in a kind of pastime APR contains little quantities of CBD, stabilized by the presence of THC.

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  45. Did you understand these truths on CBD OIL and Full Spectrum CBD Hemp Oil? Cannabinoids are isolated from hemp using supercritical CO2 extraction. Thanks to modern innovation, the resulting service is clean, complimentary of heavy metals and unnecessary waxes, naturally present in the plant, and the sucked liquid has a typical, oily consistency. CBD oil contains cannabidiol as a base ingredient and might contain just trace quantities of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). It is recommended by doctors and pharmacists as an antioxidant and compound that blocks the action of proinflammatory cytokines (proteins), e.g. in Crohn’s disease or ulcerative intestine. RSO oil has a low CBD content, while high THC. The synergistic (enhancing) action of CBD and THC relative to each other is used here. Both cannabinoids can do much more together than when used individually. Both cannabis oil type CBD and RSO also include other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). The secret is not, however, that CBD often has a structure expanded to include flavones, flavonoids, terpenes, terpenoids, amino acids and omega acids. The distinction is mostly due to intentions guiding humanity to utilize one or the other product. CBD medical marijuana oil is a rather beneficial mix of cannabinoids, created to safeguard versus 21st century disease. It’s finest to utilize all of these compounds together, as nature produced them and confined in cannabis inflorescences. Oil of marijuana in a kind of hobby APR contains small quantities of CBD, stabilized by the presence of THC. – Modern clinical research shows that CBD + THC cope with major autoimmune illness, while CBC or CBG reveal minimal activity in the presence of both compounds, just like flavonoids, flavones or terpenes, therefore their material in the solution seems to be unnecessary. In addition, the cannabis stress from which THC and CBD are obtained include negligible quantities of other cannabinoids. Marijuana oil has actually already marked a new era in which guy stopped to fear what is unidentified, and began to uncover what our ancestors had already seen and use the significant potential, at first glimpse, a little strange relationships, associated mainly with pathology. Medical cannabis, contrary to its name, does not suggest fermented female inflorescences and leaves consisting of psychedelic substances coiled in so-called “Joints”, however an useful oil without psychoactive THC. A basic individual, after taking dosages of medical marijuana and achieving the suitable state of cannabinoids in the blood, can delight in increased resistance, minimized susceptibility to cancer, delayed aging and decreased danger of stroke or heart attack. CBD oil includes cannabidiol as a base active ingredient and may consist of just trace amounts of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). RSO oil has a low CBD material, while high THC. Both marijuana oil type CBD and RSO likewise consist of other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). CBD medical marijuana oil is a rather useful blend of cannabinoids, designed to safeguard against 21st century illness. Oil of marijuana in a kind of pastime APR consists of small amounts of CBD, stabilized by the presence of THC.

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