The Robot Question

The Robot Question

Although robots that can perform human labor will put downward pressure on wages in the short term, they also will increase the rate of profit, encouraging more investment and a recovery in the wage rate. It is not so much the economics of new technologies that should worry us, but rather the politics and ethics. Continue Reading

The Long Run

The Long Run

The long run is a forecaster’s biggest challenge. But it yields substantial rewards, among them recognition of future challenges and possible solutions. Continue Reading

Should Governments Spend Away?

Should Governments Spend Away?

With sovereign-bond markets still showing little concern for the massive levels of borrowing and spending across advanced economies, it is tempting to think that there is effectively no limit to further stimulus. But we owe it to future generations to recognize how spending today could affect investment tomorrow. Continue Reading

The Challenges of the Post-Pandemic Agenda

The Challenges of the Post-Pandemic Agenda

The pandemic has highlighted the vulnerability of human societies and fortified support for urgent climate action. But while the small government, free-market template of the last four decades suddenly looks terribly outdated, history suggests that transitions between phases of capitalist development can be harsh and uncertain. Continue Reading

China Has Blown Its Historic Opportunity

China Has Blown Its Historic Opportunity

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, China could have become the development bank, central bank, and medical supplier to the world. By choosing unprovoked aggression over enlightened generosity, President Xi Jinping’s regime has squandered that historic opportunity and possibly also revealed its true character. Continue Reading

The Fastest Way Out of the Pandemic

The Fastest Way Out of the Pandemic

During the 2009 swine flu pandemic, a few countries cornered the vaccine market, leaving the vast majority of the global population with no vaccine at all until the outbreak was effectively over. This scenario must be avoided at all costs during the current crisis – and, thanks to the COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access Facility, it can be. Continue Reading

Saving Generation COVID

Saving Generation COVID

During the COVID-19 crisis, lockdowns and other social-distancing rules have forced schools worldwide to shut their doors, locking out a peak of 1.6 billion children. Unless the international community acts now, the consequences for this generation – especially its poorest members – will be severe and long-lasting. Continue Reading

A Note from a Quaran-teen

A Note from a Quaran-teen

July 17th will mark my 17th birthday. It will also mark the 138th day since I have come within six feet of anyone outside of my immediate family. Here is how our world in crisis looks to someone in Generation Z. Continue Reading

A 100-day Agenda to Reunite America

A 100-day Agenda to Reunite America

After four years of a president who has deliberately tried to divide Americans, the United States can and must find common purpose to address its many challenges. The next US president can take a range of early steps to achieve this goal. Continue Reading

The Pandemic Must End Our Complacency

The Pandemic Must End Our Complacency

With an economic downturn as severe as the Great Depression and political conditions similar to those in the run-up to World War I, an international system built on globalization now hangs in the balance. The world desperately needs effective collective leadership – and not just to contain COVID-19. Continue Reading

How Markets and Governments Must Work Together

How Markets and Governments Must Work Together

Economists have long known that the liberal ideal is an abstraction, a useful tool for theoretical reasoning, but hardly a template for reality. The private sector often turns to government in times of crisis, which raises the fundamental public policy question: What is the role of government in crisis, where does its role begin and how does it end? Continue Reading

American Exceptionalism in the Age of Trump

American Exceptionalism in the Age of Trump

As the world’s two largest economies, the United States and China are condemned to a relationship that must combine competition and cooperation. For the US, exceptionalism now includes working with the Chinese to help produce global public goods, while also defending values such as human rights. Continue Reading

The View From Argentina

The View From Argentina

Argentina is in crisis. The pandemic had turned a bleak story into something worse. The country may shortly default on its national debt for the ninth time in its history, with far-reaching consequences. But there is still hope. Continue Reading

The Future of Global Power

The Future of Global Power

Although the Sino-American rivalry was escalating long before the COVID-19 crisis erupted, it has since been thrown into overdrive. But while both countries are pursuing a zero-sum vision of the future, only one is doing so with a long-term strategy. Continue Reading

The Big Thing

The Big Thing

The Big Thing explains the Covid-19 crisis through the eyes of a 5 year old girl, and teaches children about the idea of silver linings and how to find them in their changed lives. Continue Reading

The Deadly Urgency of Now

The Deadly Urgency of Now

The consequences of lapses in international cooperation in combating COVID-19 over the last few months can now be counted in lost lives. Having failed to stop the first wave of the pandemic, we must not make the same mistake again. Continue Reading

What the Stock Market Is Really Saying

What the Stock Market Is Really Saying

The seeming confidence expressed by global equity markets in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic has surprised many – including many market participants. But a closer look reveals an unambiguous message: The global economy is facing a long, deep malaise, followed by a “new normal” of reduced earnings and profitability for all but a chosen few. Continue Reading