Trump’s First Year Echoes Obama’s Record on the Economy

by | January 22, 2018

Originally published at | January 22, 2018

The first year of Donald Trump’s presidency was marked by some of the worst political turbulence in modern U.S. history. But when it comes to the economy and markets, the surprise is how little change, good or bad, has occurred.

Let’s start with economics. The prevailing view is that conditions have improved over the past year. I’ve compared the performance of some indicators during Trump’s first year to the averages for President Barack Obama’s first and second terms.

Based on official data through the third quarter of 2017, augmented by consensus estimates for the fourth quarter, the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent from a year earlier. That is a smidgen above the annual average growth rate of Obama’s second term (2.2 percent), which itself was a significant improvement from the 0.9 percent average rate in his first term, when the economy was dragged down in its first year by the deepest recession of the postwar era. Continue Reading

Filed Under: Economics

About the Author

Larry Hatheway has over 25 years’ experience as an economist and multi-asset investment professional. He is co-founder, with Alexander Friedman, of Jackson Hole Economics, a non-profit offering commentary and analysis on the global economy, matters of public policy, and capital markets. Larry is also the founder of HarborAdvisors, LLC, an investment advisory firm catering to family offices and institutional clients worldwide.

Previously, Larry worked at GAM Investments from 2015-2019 as Group Chief Economist and Global Head of Investment Solutions, where he was responsible for a team of 50 investment professionals managing over $10bn in assets. While at GAM, Larry authored numerous articles on the world economy, policy-making, and multi-asset investment strategy.

From 1992 until 2015 Larry worked at UBS Investment Bank as Chief Economist (2005-2015), Head of Global Asset Allocation (2001-2012), Global Head of Fixed Income and Currency Strategy (1998-2001), Chief Economist, Asia (1995-1998) and Senior International Economist (1992-1995). Larry is widely recognized for his appearances on Bloomberg TV, CNBC, the BBC, CNN, and other media outlets. He frequently publishes articles and opinion pieces for Bloomberg, Barron’s, and Project Syndicate, among others.

Larry holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Texas, an MA in International Studies from the Johns Hopkins University, and a BA in History and German from Whitman College. Larry is married with four grown children and resides with his wife in Redding, CT, alongside their dog, chickens, bees, and a few ‘loaner’ sheep and goats.

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