While it is tempting to assume the market is driven only by the direction of the Federal Reserve, what is happening in China should also be
Time For a Different Drink?
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Why the War Will Continue
The map of Ukraine a year from now will most likely resemble nothing so much as the map as it appears today. The year ahead promises to be
The United States Marine Corps, Quo Vadis?
After almost 250 years, the US Marine Corps is facing what may be its biggest threat — from within.
Globalization’s Latest Last Stand
With the world increasingly turning away from economic integration and cooperation, the second wave of globalization is threatening to give
Markets Believe in Miracles
Global equity markets are priced to perfection, a state that is unlikely to remain unchallenged.
There Is More Inflation Complexity Ahead
As US inflation gradually eases, the claim that today’s inflationary pressures are the result of a temporary supply shock has re-emerged.
Quitting While on Top
New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s decision to resign, despite the support of a solid parliamentary majority and no challenge from
Eliminate the Debt Ceiling
The periodic chaos and exceptional measures associated with the US federal debt ceiling are costly, unnecessary, and could well end in catastrophe.
Utopia or Bust
The grand narrative of the long century between 1870 and 2010 was about technological triumph, coupled with social-organizational failure.
Do We Know What Causes Inflation?
The Phillips Curve has fallen into disrepair, leaving central bankers without reliable tools to navigate through the fog. That ought to worry
Japan’s New Security Posture Is Abe’s Legacy
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s plan to double the country’s military spending, together with the recent update to Japan’s national
How Not to Fight Inflation
A careful look at US economic conditions supports the view that inflation was driven mainly by supply-side disruptions and shifts in the pattern
It Could Happen in 2023
Investing in private markets has been all the rage. That’s a warning, not an endorsement. The risks of disruption in private markets are
What Drives Innovation?
After decades in the wilderness, industrial policy is now being rediscovered as a tool for addressing climate change and navigating a fraught
The Second Green Revolution Will Be Digitized
Six decades after the Green Revolution began, the rise of robotics and artificial intelligence may usher in another agricultural transformation.
Germany: Tanks are Moral
The 20th century was defined, in many ways, by the worst of Germany. The 21st can yet be defined by its best moral self.
The Limits of Japan’s Military Awakening
While Japan’s move toward rearmament is welcome, the embrace of Tomahawk missiles and hypersonic weapons alone will not force China to stop
China and the Sovereign-Debt Bomb
A failure to get ahead of the developing world’s looming debt crises would represent a moral failure, and would also greatly dampen world
Round 1: 2023 ‘Forecasts’
Although John Kenneth Galbraith once said ‘The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable,’ we think
What Price McCarthy?
The Republican extremists who blocked their own party’s choice for Speaker of the US House of Representatives have gotten their way,
Secular Stagnation, Not Secular Stagflation
The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have left most of the world reeling from the effects of stagflation. But as long
China’s Brutal COVID Winter
As most developed economies learned almost three years ago, reducing COVID-19 infection rates in high-risk populations requires self-distancing
What We Learned in 2022
2022 was a year of significant events, too many of them tragic. Yet, in each of them we also find reasons for hope.
What in the World Will Happen in 2023?
The sleeper story of the coming year will be Japan’s emergence as a major geopolitical actor. And, for the first time since the fall of