With “Team Persistent” having clearly prevailed over “Team Transitory” in the debate over the nature of today’s surging inflation,
Don’t Bet on a Soft Landing
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How Global Food Crises Work
As if the immediate food shortages created by Russia’s war in Ukraine were not bad enough, the disruption to this year’s harvest means
All Clear?
Has an ‘all clear’ has been issued in the form of ‘peak inflation’, paving the way for investors to return with gusto into global
Musk and the ESG Knife Fight
Tesla has been kicked out of the S&P ESG Index and Elon Musk claims ESG is a scam. Is he right?
The Case for Nordic and NATO Realism
To be a realist in international relations is to accept that some states are more sovereign than others. “Strict realism” now requires
Realizing Africa’s Sustainable Energy Future
Without international support, including investment at scale, African countries will not be able to expand energy access to all and still
When Will More Economists Forecast Recession?
Economists are not forecasting a recession, but their forecasting record is not particularly good.
Will US Inflation Lead to Recession?
Sadly, principled statesmen and women who can forge bold, morally consistent responses to today’s global problems are in short supply.
Kofi Annan’s Lessons in Global Leadership
Sadly, principled statesmen and women who can forge bold, morally consistent responses to today’s global problems are in short supply.
Beware a Global Economy with Little Fires Everywhere
Rich countries have shown impressive unity in helping Ukraine counter the Russian invasion. They now need to demonstrate the same level of
When is Enough, Enough?
Another week, another dismal set of returns. For stock and bond investors, 2022 is off to a terrible start. Now stresses are beginning to emerge in credit fixed income markets. Large Chinese real estate developers are teetering on the edge of default and US...
A Better Globalization Might Rise from Hyper-Globalization’s Ashes
With the end of post-1990s hyper-globalization, scenarios for the world economy run the gamut. In the best case, achieving a better balance
When Does Inflation Stop?
To understand the increase in consumer price inflation around the world, one must look not only at supply and demand but also at the wedge
Europe’s Gas Conundrum
If Europe is willing to pay the price of expensive LNG imports, it could severely undermine Russia’s ability to earn hard currency via gas
A Narrow Runway for a Soft Landing
History does not offer many examples of recession-free Fed tightening cycles. Will this be an exception?
The Fed Does Not Deserve All the Inflation Blame
The US Federal Reserve certainly bears its share of responsibility for the great inflation of the 2020s. But powerful political pressures
Not All One-Eyed Kings Are Alike
For the first time in nearly twenty years, monetary and fiscal policy divergence is emerging worldwide.
Friends Without Benefits
By calling for supply chains to be shifted away from strategic rivals, US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen has implicitly rejected the
Will Western Sanctions Change the Global Financial System?
Western countries’ increased use of financial sanctions as a weapon of war has created a new incentive for China and other countries
The Growing Threat of Global Recession
With luck, the risk of a synchronized global downturn will recede by late 2022. But for the moment, the odds of recession in Europe, the United
The Growth Engines Are Sputtering
The International Monetary Fund’s significant downward revision to its 2022 World Economic Outlook, just one quarter into the calendar year,
Taylor Rule Communication Challenges
Upcoming Fed communication may determine if we are heading into an avoidable recession and a crash on Wall Street.
This Inflation Is Demand-Driven and Persistent
Although inflation has risen sharply for multiple reasons, increased demand is by far the most important factor. The common argument about
An Interview with Larry Hatheway
Thoughts on the political divide in the US and a career at the intersection of economics and investing.