The International Monetary Fund’s significant downward revision to its 2022 World Economic Outlook, just one quarter into the calendar year,
The Growth Engines Are Sputtering
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Taylor Rule Communication Challenges
Upcoming Fed communication may determine if we are heading into an avoidable recession and a crash on Wall Street.
This Inflation Is Demand-Driven and Persistent
Although inflation has risen sharply for multiple reasons, increased demand is by far the most important factor. The common argument about
An Interview with Larry Hatheway
Thoughts on the political divide in the US and a career at the intersection of economics and investing.
The Carbon Price Solution
The net-zero transition requires the rapid development at scale of new technologies, energy-efficient infrastructure, and carbon capture and
The Ant and the Grasshopper
President Biden’s recent large-scale use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being driven by politics, not economics.
Storm Clouds Over the Global Economy
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a resurgence of inflation around the world, the prospects for a robust global recovery from the
How to Sanction a Nuclear Foe
Sanctions are an important and powerful weapon, and they are putting some pressure on the Kremlin. But unless the West employs them judiciously,
The Profits Frenemy
Investors should hope for falling corporate profits, as the alternative will lead to more pain.
The Dollar’s Reserves of Strength
The US-China trade war and the recent freezing of much of Russia’s official foreign-exchange reserves have again raised fears of an exodus
The End of the “Global Savings Glut”?
Regardless of whether America’s persistent current-account deficits really can be explained primarily by the accumulation of excess
South Africa’s Time to Choose
What explains South Africa’s clearly sympathetic stance towards Russia?
The SEC Climate Disclosure Rule Will Change Everything
Our species is facing an existential threat and all major players need to be held accountable to doing the right thing. The SEC’s new
Can the World Afford Russia-Style Sanctions on China?
Many academic studies suggest that sanctions on China or a break in Sino-American economic ties probably would have a smaller quantitative
Russia Is Finished as a Major Energy Power
In the wake of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, no European in their right mind wants Russia to have the free cash flow that its
Madeleine Albright’s Potent Legacy for Women
Madeline Albright made it her life’s work to fight for women.
Caution: Curves Ahead
Bond markets are signaling precarious conditions ahead. Investor should take note.
Blundering into a nuclear war in Ukraine: a hypothetical scenario
NTI experts believe that the most likely use of nuclear weapons in any scenario would be unintentional—that humanity would blunder into
Fight Inflation with Supply-Side Labor Reform
High inflation demands supply side solutions. The labor force needs to be made more attractive to workers.
How to Use Economic Sanctions Wisely
Given the horrors of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the public’s support for sanctions has been strong. But, before tightening
China’s Time for Global Leadership
In the past 40 years, no country has benefited more from globalization than China. Now, as Russian President Vladimir Putin’s appalling
Slowdown Ahead
Investors continue to underestimate global GDP and earnings growth risks.
These Russia Sanctions Are Different
The multilateral sanctions imposed on Russia since the invasion of Ukraine will severely reduce Russians’ standard of living and their
NATO Must Get MAD at Russia
Russia has shown that it is ready to murder innocent Ukrainians, but it is not ready to commit suicide. And that holds the key to preventing