With the end of post-1990s hyper-globalization, scenarios for the world economy run the gamut. In the best case, achieving a better balance
A Better Globalization Might Rise from Hyper-Globalization’s Ashes
Continue Reading
Featured
When Does Inflation Stop?
To understand the increase in consumer price inflation around the world, one must look not only at supply and demand but also at the wedge
Europe’s Gas Conundrum
If Europe is willing to pay the price of expensive LNG imports, it could severely undermine Russia’s ability to earn hard currency via gas
A Narrow Runway for a Soft Landing
History does not offer many examples of recession-free Fed tightening cycles. Will this be an exception?
The Fed Does Not Deserve All the Inflation Blame
The US Federal Reserve certainly bears its share of responsibility for the great inflation of the 2020s. But powerful political pressures
Not All One-Eyed Kings Are Alike
For the first time in nearly twenty years, monetary and fiscal policy divergence is emerging worldwide.
Friends Without Benefits
By calling for supply chains to be shifted away from strategic rivals, US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen has implicitly rejected the
Will Western Sanctions Change the Global Financial System?
Western countries’ increased use of financial sanctions as a weapon of war has created a new incentive for China and other countries
The Growing Threat of Global Recession
With luck, the risk of a synchronized global downturn will recede by late 2022. But for the moment, the odds of recession in Europe, the United
The Growth Engines Are Sputtering
The International Monetary Fund’s significant downward revision to its 2022 World Economic Outlook, just one quarter into the calendar year,
Taylor Rule Communication Challenges
Upcoming Fed communication may determine if we are heading into an avoidable recession and a crash on Wall Street.
This Inflation Is Demand-Driven and Persistent
Although inflation has risen sharply for multiple reasons, increased demand is by far the most important factor. The common argument about
An Interview with Larry Hatheway
Thoughts on the political divide in the US and a career at the intersection of economics and investing.
The Carbon Price Solution
The net-zero transition requires the rapid development at scale of new technologies, energy-efficient infrastructure, and carbon capture and
The Ant and the Grasshopper
President Biden’s recent large-scale use of the Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being driven by politics, not economics.
Storm Clouds Over the Global Economy
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a resurgence of inflation around the world, the prospects for a robust global recovery from the
How to Sanction a Nuclear Foe
Sanctions are an important and powerful weapon, and they are putting some pressure on the Kremlin. But unless the West employs them judiciously,
The Profits Frenemy
Investors should hope for falling corporate profits, as the alternative will lead to more pain.
The Dollar’s Reserves of Strength
The US-China trade war and the recent freezing of much of Russia’s official foreign-exchange reserves have again raised fears of an exodus
The End of the “Global Savings Glut”?
Regardless of whether America’s persistent current-account deficits really can be explained primarily by the accumulation of excess
South Africa’s Time to Choose
What explains South Africa’s clearly sympathetic stance towards Russia?
The SEC Climate Disclosure Rule Will Change Everything
Our species is facing an existential threat and all major players need to be held accountable to doing the right thing. The SEC’s new
Can the World Afford Russia-Style Sanctions on China?
Many academic studies suggest that sanctions on China or a break in Sino-American economic ties probably would have a smaller quantitative
Russia Is Finished as a Major Energy Power
In the wake of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, no European in their right mind wants Russia to have the free cash flow that its