Absent recurring aggregate supply and demand shocks, or a global private sector investment boom, lower interest rates are here to stay.
Whither Interest Rates?
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AI’s Copyright Problem Is Fixable
Contrary to what leading tech companies claim, it is entirely possible to ensure that generative AI models respect copyright and compensate
Higher Interest Rates Are Here to Stay
The long-standing economic consensus that interest rates would remain low indefinitely, making debt cost-free, is no longer tenable. Even
Fulfilling the Promise of Medicare
Medicare is a program so good that it is worth improving. But powerful vested interests stand in the way of a system that could provide better
Will High Interest Rates Trigger a Debt Disaster?
Big government deficits and rising debt-to-GDP ratios are triggering calls for fiscal austerity. But many fiscal hawks ignore the role that
The Legacy of Henry Kissinger
Kissinger left a complex legacy, highlighted by strategic brilliance and tarnished by deep flaws. In his life’s work and actions reside
Is Industrial Policy Like Vitamin C or Penicillin?
Industrial policy is being resurrected worldwide, despite a mixed legacy. Yet the prevalence of market failure suggests that improving economic
If Europe Could Do It, So Can the Middle East
A two-state solution must be bold, creative and inclusive. That does not make it impossible.
The Two-State, Two-Economy Solution
Finding a two-state, economically viable solution amid the ‘archipelago’ that is Palestinian territory will be a major challenge.
Reasons to Give Thanks
Later this week, US families join together for Thanksgiving. Many will return to loved ones with heavy hearts, burdened by the unending news
Rebuilding Trust in Expertise
Supporters of populist parties often resent experts who believe their specialized knowledge entitles them to make major policy decisions.
A Victory Lap for the Transitory Inflation Team
More than two years after economists divided into opposing camps over the nature of the post-pandemic inflation, we now know which side was
Why Mainstream Economics Got Inflation Wrong
Leading economists’ misdiagnosis of inflation in 2021-22 was the latest episode in a long-running series of failures, from not foreseeing
A Teaching Moment
Complexity is common. The better we understand its sources, the better we can address its challenges.
An Industrial Strategy for Europe
Europe may need to follow the US and China in the deployment of an industrial strategy. It has the tools to do so.
Certain Uncertainty in the US Bond Market
As inflation recedes bond yields are apt to fall.
The Fed’s Done: What Next?
The Fed’s tightening cycle is done. Now comes the recession, for which Wall Street, Main Street and Pennsylvania Avenue are ill prepared.
Should Fiscal Policy Resemble Private Budgets?
Governments are not like individuals or companies. They have far greater borrowing capacity. But limits exist. It is time to think about them.
Does Anyone Care About Deficits?
In recent months, US bond yields have jumped. Surging government deficits are partly to blame. Will politicians respond?
Crime and Politics in 2024
A year from now Americans will be heading to the polls to select their next President, and crime will be one of the key issues.
War and Dollars
Between new wars, the return of nuclear brinkmanship, and threats to the US dollar, there is good reason to worry about the future of global
World of Warfare
The post-1945 Pax Americana appears more vulnerable than ever before, and its main rivals are eager to exploit its apparent weaknesses in
Data Dependent?
The Fed is a self-described ‘data dependent’ decision-maker. But that’s not all. Its aversion to inflation risk and its abiding reliance
What Can COP28 Achieve?
‘There are few mysteries left about how to mitigate climate change. The main challenge is whether the right policies can be put in place.’