The Trump effect is well-known, but not for what the conventional wisdom believes — the data suggest that Trump consistently hurts his and
2024 Elections: The Trump “Dummy” Factor
Continue Reading
Weekly Market Compass
Davos and the Perils of Prediction
Why is it that a gathering of the world’s wealthiest and most powerful people tends to produce such an inability to predict the future?
It’s (More Than) the Economy, Stupid!
Lower inflation and low unemployment, alone, may not ensure Biden’s reelection. Voter economic angst runs deeper and broader than simple
Not Just Democracy on the Ballot
Liberalism, far more than democracy, is at stake in this year’s elections. What America and the world need are voices that can rejuvenate
What we Hope for in 2024
In 2024, we have three hopes for a better world.
Whither Interest Rates?
Absent recurring aggregate supply and demand shocks, or a global private sector investment boom, lower interest rates are here to stay.
Reasons to Give Thanks
Later this week, US families join together for Thanksgiving. Many will return to loved ones with heavy hearts, burdened by the unending news
The Fed’s Done: What Next?
The Fed’s tightening cycle is done. Now comes the recession, for which Wall Street, Main Street and Pennsylvania Avenue are ill prepared.
Does Anyone Care About Deficits?
In recent months, US bond yields have jumped. Surging government deficits are partly to blame. Will politicians respond?
The Middle East: Emotion, Reasoning and Hope
The massacres of innocent Israeli men, women, and children by Hamas were monstrous acts of pure evil. How are we to understand what has happened?
Are Stocks and Bonds Poised to Sell-Off?
In 2022, rising inflation triggered a simultaneous sell-off in stock and bond markets. Are we now poised for a repeat?
Who Can Trash China’s Economy Most?
Is China’s economy in real trouble, or is the pessimism unwarranted? The answer likely depends on whether Xi’s authoritarianism erodes
Labor Day and the Resurgent American Worker
Labor Day 2023 is a good time to reflect on the growing power of the American worker and the political and economic implications.
Artificial Intelligence and Art: Friend or Foe?
“Artificial intelligence is encroaching on the world of art in ways good and bad. Used properly, however, it can improve the workings
Why Debt is Too Often Misunderstood
Understanding how private, public, and foreign debt are interrelated yields important insights into the workings of the economy. It also leads
ESG: Emerging Clarity
There are dozens of different carbon emissions standards being explored by regulators, yet last week the ISSB took a critical step forward
Artificial Intelligence, Economics and the End of Business
Humans are not destined to be slaves to either technological innovation or economics.
Our Summer (But not Necessarily Beach) Reading List
Are you looking for different kind of beach reading this summer? If so, you might enjoy these thoughtful perspectives.
De-Leveraging: The Secret to US Economic Resilience?
The US economy has confounded economists and markets by avoiding recession. Perhaps it is less interest rate sensitive than commonly believed.
Don’t Let the Lessons of Juneteenth Fade
Juneteenth must not be forgotten, for the work of justice and equity is ongoing.
Fly-Casting for Recession
Fly fishing, like economic forecasting, is nothing if not an exercise in patience. Wait long enough, and fortunes may change.
The ESG Debate Will be Solved by Data
ESG will become less political when stakeholders have confidence in the data that a company collects, and context for how to interpret the
Don’t Look Up
In the movie, “Don’t Look Up,” scientists played by Jennifer Lawrence and Leonardo DiCaprio try to warn the US government to take action
The Beauty of Complexity
In looking for simple answers—or worse, easy villains to blame for what goes wrong—we all too often suppress the realities of complexity.