Unusual disruptions to labor markets, supply chains and production have slowed growth and boosted inflation, but those factors appear unlikely
What Does it all Mean?
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Weekly Market Compass
Old Bulls
Easy monetary policies and the absence of compelling alternatives have pushed investors into one of the great equity market advances in history.
The Cruelest Month?
September is the worst month for equities. And after a powerful bull market, investors might understandably be concerned. But this September
Unambiguous Ambiguity
Chairman Powell pulled off an impressive feat on Friday. He signaled the Fed’s willingness to taper without unleashing a tantrum. The secret:
Fly Fishing for the Fed
The Fed faces difficult decisions. The incoming data suggest tapering is imminent. But risks are also on the rise.
The Dog Days of Summer
The dog days of summer are here. But when the ‘big dog’–aka the Fed–arrives, the heat may shift to the markets.
Whiplash
Beneath the calm exterior of markets, rotation and counter-rotation are befuddling asset managers. That’s not likely to change.
Fault Lines
The tremors of pandemic, climate change and populism betray the existence of deep fault lines in capitalism’s coexistence with democracy
Pitchforks into Plowshares
Pitchforks are the symbol of popular unrest. Plowshares the biblical allusion to peace and prosperity. Technology companies would be wise
Peak Earnings, Peak Markets
Investors are unimpressed with Q2 earnings. Is the arrival of peak earnings a sign of peak markets? We doubt it.
The Calculus of Today’s Markets
Global markets are struggling to find direction and the reason resides in the calculus of markets, namely a divergence between first and second
Mixed Signals
The pandemic unleashed forces shifting the contours of supply and demand. Price and volume signals are tough to read—for economists and
TINA and the Curve
In a world of negative real interest rates, tight credit spreads and wobbly cryptocurrencies, investors are hemmed in. Stock markets win when
Well Fed
Has the Fed changed its tune about inflation? Is it still transitory, or is it now more evenly distributed? What does this mean for markets?
A Looming Tax Shadow?
What will the G7’s agreement to pursue a minimum global income tax rate of 15% mean for the markets?
From Goldilocks to Stagflation
Is the world economy restoring growth without inflation (‘Goldilocks’), overheating or succumbing to stagflation?
Crunch Time
The coming weeks brings a deluge of key economic data. Investors will be looking for patterns, above all in prices as they gauge the sustainability
Mr. Taper and Punch Bowls
It is clear that taper talk has arrived, and it won’t go away easily. What does this mean for markets?
Lessons in Humility
It is time for the Fed to normalize its language. If the Fed is to preserve its credibility and promote sounder financial market conditions,
What Unites Buffett and Powell? They are Both Wrong About Inflation.
Recently, Warren Buffett made headlines by declaring that he is seeing ‘substantial inflation’, while Fed Chairman Powell calls it only
The Tax Man Cometh
Might President’ Biden’s proposed new taxes on investment gains produce a sell-off in capital markets?
The Week Ahead Matters
Over the next five days investors face a veritable tsunami of corporate earnings and economic data releases. The week’s data deluge will
Earnings, Rotation and Regions
The stage is set for rising global output and corporate earnings for the remainder of 2021. Rotation has arrived in sector terms, and is now
It’s Data Time
This week kicks off the first quarter 2021 earnings season in earnest. The bar is high, and the data will soon need to validate embedded expectations,