The periodic chaos and exceptional measures associated with the US federal debt ceiling are costly, unnecessary, and could well end in catastrophe.
Eliminate the Debt Ceiling
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Utopia or Bust
The grand narrative of the long century between 1870 and 2010 was about technological triumph, coupled with social-organizational failure.
Do We Know What Causes Inflation?
The Phillips Curve has fallen into disrepair, leaving central bankers without reliable tools to navigate through the fog. That ought to worry
Japan’s New Security Posture Is Abe’s Legacy
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s plan to double the country’s military spending, together with the recent update to Japan’s national
How Not to Fight Inflation
A careful look at US economic conditions supports the view that inflation was driven mainly by supply-side disruptions and shifts in the pattern
It Could Happen in 2023
Investing in private markets has been all the rage. That’s a warning, not an endorsement. The risks of disruption in private markets are
What Drives Innovation?
After decades in the wilderness, industrial policy is now being rediscovered as a tool for addressing climate change and navigating a fraught
The Second Green Revolution Will Be Digitized
Six decades after the Green Revolution began, the rise of robotics and artificial intelligence may usher in another agricultural transformation.
Germany: Tanks are Moral
The 20th century was defined, in many ways, by the worst of Germany. The 21st can yet be defined by its best moral self.
The Limits of Japan’s Military Awakening
While Japan’s move toward rearmament is welcome, the embrace of Tomahawk missiles and hypersonic weapons alone will not force China to stop
China and the Sovereign-Debt Bomb
A failure to get ahead of the developing world’s looming debt crises would represent a moral failure, and would also greatly dampen world
Round 1: 2023 ‘Forecasts’
Although John Kenneth Galbraith once said ‘The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable,’ we think
What Price McCarthy?
The Republican extremists who blocked their own party’s choice for Speaker of the US House of Representatives have gotten their way,
Secular Stagnation, Not Secular Stagflation
The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have left most of the world reeling from the effects of stagflation. But as long
China’s Brutal COVID Winter
As most developed economies learned almost three years ago, reducing COVID-19 infection rates in high-risk populations requires self-distancing
What We Learned in 2022
2022 was a year of significant events, too many of them tragic. Yet, in each of them we also find reasons for hope.
What in the World Will Happen in 2023?
The sleeper story of the coming year will be Japan’s emergence as a major geopolitical actor. And, for the first time since the fall of
More War Means More Inflation
Advanced economies and emerging markets are increasingly engaged in necessary “wars” – some real, some metaphorical – that
Is It Time to Give Up on 1.5°C?
The world economy’s carbon intensity is declining at nowhere near the rate needed to limit global warming to 1.5°C. But while continuing
Whose Rule of Law?
Figuring out Ukraine’s post-conflict future will be essential not just for the Ukrainian victims of Russia’s invasion, but also for Europe
What Happens After the War?
Figuring out Ukraine’s post-conflict future will be essential not just for the Ukrainian victims of Russia’s invasion, but also for Europe
The Promise of Nuclear Fusion
We may be on the cusp of commercially available nuclear fusion technology, which would usher in a societal paradigm shift.
New Year, New Congress, New Economic Risks
With almost everyone having been blindsided by surging inflation and other unanticipated developments, neither economic nor political forecasters
Ten Lessons from the Return of History
One thing we learned in 2022 is that war between countries, thought by more than a few academics to be obsolete, is anything but. And that