At a time when the United States is asking its allies to help it counter China, its wasteful, inefficient industrial policies are making it
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De-Leveraging: The Secret to US Economic Resilience?
The US economy has confounded economists and markets by avoiding recession. Perhaps it is less interest rate sensitive than commonly believed.
The Comeback of Industrial Policy: Bidenomics and the Global System
Industrial policy is not always wrong and sometimes it is very right. Now is one of those times. Even Adam Smith might agree.
Currency, Conflict, and Global Order
A more divided world does not imply the demise of the dollar’s central role in the global economic and financial system.
Winning the Fight for Women’s Land Rights
Gender inequality has prevented female agricultural workers in numerous countries from owning and inheriting the land that they cultivate.
The Long Reach of China’s Demographic Destiny
Although China is on the verge of escaping the dreaded “middle-income trap,” it is aging fast and facing significant economic
Focus on Productivity, Not Technology
Scientific and technological innovation may be necessary for the productivity growth that enriches societies, but it is not sufficient. Without
We Celebrate Struggle
On July 4 Americans celebrate their independence and freedom. But they also celebrate the permanent struggle to form a more perfect
India and the Global Balance of Power
Great power politics now include India. But will India tip the balance?
How Painful Will Disinflation Be?
Bringing down inflation often requires recession. But might this time be different? Much depends on restoring the balance between job vacancies
Don’t Let the Lessons of Juneteenth Fade
Juneteenth must not be forgotten, for the work of justice and equity is ongoing.
Flexible Exchange Rates and Emerging Markets
Starting in the 1990s – and faster since 2000 – emerging-market economies floated their currencies, hoping to insulate themselves from
Has Putin Lost Russia?
Vladimir Putin’s greatest nightmare has come true, with Russia having been brought to the brink of civil war. Even if a massacre of the
Fly-Casting for Recession
Fly fishing, like economic forecasting, is nothing if not an exercise in patience. Wait long enough, and fortunes may change.
America’s Mythical Fiscal Conservatives
The United States’ debt-to-GDP ratio, which improved during the inflationary spike of 2021-22, is expected to increase as inflation cools
What the Paris Finance Summit Must Do
Western countries must join the effort to transform multilateral financial institutions, even if it means ceding some of their own influence
The ESG Debate Will be Solved by Data
ESG will become less political when stakeholders have confidence in the data that a company collects, and context for how to interpret the
Strengthening the Global Balance Sheet
The latest last-minute deal to raise the US debt limit does not solve the underlying political problem. On the contrary, with the country
How to Think About Climate-Tech Solutions
To think that technology will save us from climate change is to invite riskier behavior, or moral hazard. Whether a climate solution creates
Russia’s New Rasputin
The chief of the feared Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has been attacking Russia’s top military brass and warning that ordinary Russians,
Climate Science Beats Climate Fatalism
Preventing global warming by 1.5 degrees Celsius may seem impossible, but science shows it is feasible. It is also imperative.
Revisiting the Behavioral Revolution in Economics
Behavioral science has upended economics, but has not yet sufficiently changed it.
The US Debt Ceiling Debacle Is Not Over
The latest last-minute deal to raise the US debt limit does not solve the underlying political problem. On the contrary, with the country
The Myth of Western Decline
In recent years, China has capitalized on the G7’s diminishing share of global GDP to proclaim the superiority of its one-party system over