The Dollar’s Rebound Is More Mystery Than Economics

by | May 1, 2018

Originally published at Bloomberg.com | May 1, 2018

The dollar is staging a comeback. Pundits are out in full force, suggesting this might finally be the end of its recent weakness and the start of a strengthening trend they have been predicting for more than a year. They may be right, but in my career spanning more than three decades in finance, I’ve learned that nobody really knows what moves currencies.

The Federal Reserve began increasing interest rates in earnest early in 2017, while the European Central Bank and Bank of Japan kept their accommodative pedals firmly to the metal. But instead of appreciating, as the experts predicted, the dollar plunged almost 20 percent against the euro and 10 percent against the yen in the ensuing 12 months. Little wonder most currency prognosticators were left scratching their heads.

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Filed Under: Economics

About the Author

Alex is the co-founder of Jackson Hole Economics, a non-profit research organization which provides analysis of key topics in the political economy, and develops actionable ideas for how sustainable growth can be achieved

Alex is also the co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of Novata, a mission-driven and technology-powered public benefit corporation designed to improve the process of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) diligence in the private markets. Backed by a unique consortium, which includes the Ford Foundation, S&P Global, Hamilton Lane and Omidyar Network, Novata has created an independent, unbiased and flexible platform for the private markets to more consistently measure, analyze and report on relevant ESG data.

With two decades of experience in the financial and non-profit spaces, Alex has led a number of sustainable growth and transformation efforts. He is a former CEO of GAM Holdings and Chief Investment Officer of UBS, and also served as the Chief Financial Officer of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, where he created the foundation's strategic investment fund.

Alex was a White House Fellow and an assistant to the Secretary of Defense. He is a member of the Board of Directors of Franklin Resources, Inc. (Franklin Templeton), a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, Chair of the Advisory Board of Project Syndicate and a board member of the American Alpine Club. Alex also writes regularly for various news outlets and is the author of Babu's Bindi and The Big Thing: Brave Bea, both children's books.

Alex holds a JD from Columbia Law School, where he was a Harlan Fiske Stone Scholar, an MBA from Columbia Business School, and a BA from Princeton University.

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