What to expect from 2019’s ‘post-peak’ economy

by | December 9, 2018

Originally published to CNN Business | December 9, 2018

Twelve months ago, investors were giddy.Markets were buoyant, supported by synchronous global growth and market-friendly US policies, including freshly minted corporate tax cuts and deregulation.What a difference a year makes. As 2018 draws to a close, investors are unsettled, volatility is spiking and most portfolios are in the red. Large setbacks in global equity and emerging markets, coupled with lackluster performance from bonds, credit and most hedge funds, have left investors unhappy this holiday season.

In 2019, the market environment is likely to remain challenging as growth slows and returns on capital struggle to meet still-lofty expectations.

Households, on the other hand, may fare somewhat better, as their share of the pie grows, courtesy of moderate wage increases. But even so, those gains are likely to be incremental and gradual. Global economic fundamentals explain why.

At first glance, the world economy looks to be in pretty good shape. Not since the 1980s have as many advanced and emerging economies enjoyed a simultaneous expansion like the one now underway. Today, those countries in recession or worse are few in number and small as a percentage of world output (e.g., Venezuela or Argentina).

Continue Reading

Filed Under: Economics

About the Author

Alex is the co-founder of Jackson Hole Economics, a non-profit research organization which provides analysis of key topics in the political economy, and develops actionable ideas for how sustainable growth can be achieved

Alex is also the co-founder and Chief Executive Officer of Novata, a mission-driven and technology-powered public benefit corporation designed to improve the process of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) diligence in the private markets. Backed by a unique consortium, which includes the Ford Foundation, S&P Global, Hamilton Lane and Omidyar Network, Novata has created an independent, unbiased and flexible platform for the private markets to more consistently measure, analyze and report on relevant ESG data.

With two decades of experience in the financial and non-profit spaces, Alex has led a number of sustainable growth and transformation efforts. He is a former CEO of GAM Holdings and Chief Investment Officer of UBS, and also served as the Chief Financial Officer of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, where he created the foundation's strategic investment fund.

Alex was a White House Fellow and an assistant to the Secretary of Defense. He is a member of the Board of Directors of Franklin Resources, Inc. (Franklin Templeton), a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, Chair of the Advisory Board of Project Syndicate and a board member of the American Alpine Club. Alex also writes regularly for various news outlets and is the author of Babu's Bindi and The Big Thing: Brave Bea, both children's books.

Alex holds a JD from Columbia Law School, where he was a Harlan Fiske Stone Scholar, an MBA from Columbia Business School, and a BA from Princeton University.

Related Posts

Pin It on Pinterest

Share This