The Spectre of Inflation

The Spectre of Inflation

For economists, tales of hyperinflations are the academic equivalent of a reading of the Apocalypse in the book of Revelation.  They are for the monetarily-minded a campfire story of the horrible wraith beyond the woods, or the morbid fascination of an automobile crash from which one cannot turn away.  The terror is understandable when one considers how high- and hyper- inflations destroy lives by eviscerating savings and wages, impoverishing pensioners and the middle classes, and ultimately undermining the fabric of society itself. 

For my generation growing up in the U.S. or Europe, hyperinflation is like a medieval fairy tale, occurring in a far off land … full of terrifying goblins and dragons, but not real.  The U.S. and European experiences have been quite different, and both a century old. The U.S. collective memory is marked less by inflation than by the deflation of the Great Depression. Europeans are shaped by the memory of Weimar Germany.  

We may now need to reconsider the possibility of a shift into a highly inflationary environment. It may emerge slowly, but the tail-risk is that an unforeseen event catalyzes a sudden shift for which we are not prepared.

Over the past year, the balance sheet of the U.S. Federal Reserve has grown by $3.2 trillion (82.5%) to $7.0 trillion.  This extraordinary growth came as a result of the pandemic-related $2.2 trillion CARES Act, fiscal stimulus over the course of the second quarter that resulted in new money creation on an unprecedented scale.  The Fed now holds $4.3 trillion in U.S. Treasury securities, a sevenfold increase from March 2008.

We observe from the Japan experience and the global financial crisis that the size (or rate of change) of central bank balance sheets doesn’t by itself presage inflation.  A similar rapid expansion was made in the global financial crisis, with predictions of inflation accompanying, as the Fed’s balance sheet grew 128% to $2.1 trillion by March 2009.  That particular expansion was primarily the result of the Fed acquiring private market assets, not newly issued government debt, and as such didn’t result in inflationary new money creation.  Money demand grew alongside money supply, tempering inflation.  This time is different.  The $3 trillion expansion in 2020 was primarily created by discounting U.S. Treasury bonds, the proceeds of which ultimately ended up as relief payments not tied to capital formation or economic activity. In other words, printing money. 

The case for inflation isn’t superficially obvious. Increased government spending may simply be offsetting falling private sector aggregate demand.  Economist Gary Schilling recently pointed out that traditional near-term indicators (CPI and velocity of money) appear deflationary.  But there are contradictory signs. Poorer households are experiencing inflation well above official CPI rates. Savers are getting jumpy about zero-yield bank accounts. Velocity will accelerate if inflation expectations embed or if there is another scare leading to mass hoarding.  Goldman has just rung the tocsin based on the recent rise in inflation expectations and the surging gold price. It is axiomatic that inflation is “too much money chasing too few goods.”  While aggregate capacity seems underutilized and wage pressures are muted by high unemployment, supply chains remain partially dysfunctional with a large number of both industrial and consumer items that remain unavailable due to pandemic-related disruptions.  It’s not clear whether this is significant or indicative of a systemic issue, but it is a cautionary sign to be watched.

Fitch just fired a warning shot across the bow of the U.S. government, placing the sovereign rating on negative outlook and citing “ongoing deterioration in public finances and the absence of a credible fiscal consolidation plan.” Those are strong words when used against the AAA-rated issuer of the world’s reserve currency. Other thoughtful voices have pointed out that the strength of the dollar, and thus its exclusive status, are now at serious risk.

Two things are required for a stable monetary policy: a truly independent central bank and the elimination of deficit spending.  Chairman Powell would vigorously assert that the Fed remains independent, despite the apparent harmonic concord with Trump administration policy.  This is open for debate.  However, there is no reasonable prospect that government spending in the U.S. or Europe will be reined in any time soon.  Governments on both continents are now actively contemplating a second wave … of relief spending.  Eventually, the inflation tax becomes government’s only recourse to additional revenue. 

As an emerging markets investor, I have experienced first-hand in Zimbabwe the devastating effects of hyperinflation.  There was the financial pain of seeing 90% of invested capital in a market-leading and profitable business destroyed in dollar terms practically overnight.  However, the true tragedy has been the devastating impact on Zimbabweans who watched their purchasing power go to effectively zero. They are now facing rampant food insecurity and the failure of basic municipal infrastructure such as electricity, water and sewerage.  Because Zimbabweans have seen this before, many businesses have applied practical lessons from the previous hyperinflation to navigate this one.  However, Europe and the U.S. have no analogous experience, and remain blind both to the dangers and how to prevent it.

Acolytes of Modern Monetary Theory, which asserts that deficits matter not and governments should print as much money as needed – unfettered by orthodox economic beliefs – may soon wake up to a real-life nightmare worse than their most frightening dreams.


Michael Wilkerson is Chief Executive Officer of Fairfax Africa Holdings Corporation, a publicly-listed investment holding company invested in African businesses in food & agriculture, education, financial services, and renewable energy infrastructure, and the Chairman of charity: water, one of the world’s largest and most well-recognized organizations focused on solving the world water crisis, having cumulatively provided over 11 million people with safe access to clean drinking water through over 50,000 projects in 28 countries in Africa and around the world.

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Cannabis oil has actually currently marked a brand-new era in which guy ceased to fear what is unidentified, and began to discover what our forefathers had currently seen and utilize the significant capacity, at first look, a little strange relationships, associated primarily with pathology. Medical cannabis, contrary to its name, does not mean fermented female inflorescences and leaves containing psychoactive substances coiled in so-called “Joints”, however a helpful oil without psychoactive THC. A standard person, after taking doses of medical cannabis and attaining the appropriate state of cannabinoids in the blood, can delight in increased immunity, minimized vulnerability to cancer, postponed aging and lowered danger of stroke or cardiac arrest. CBD oil includes cannabidiol as a base ingredient and might include just trace quantities of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). RSO oil has a low CBD material, while high THC. Both cannabis oil type CBD and RSO likewise consist of other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). CBD medical cannabis oil is a rather beneficial mix of cannabinoids, created to safeguard against 21st century disease. Oil of cannabis in a kind of hobby APR contains small amounts of CBD, balanced by the presence of THC.

  32. Did you understand these realities on CBD OIL and Full Spectrum CBD Hemp Oil? Cannabinoids are separated from hemp using supercritical CO2 extraction. Thanks to modern-day innovation, the resulting service is clean, complimentary of heavy metals and unnecessary waxes, naturally present in the plant, and the drawn liquid has a typical, oily consistency. CBD oil consists of cannabidiol as a base ingredient and might include just trace amounts of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). It is recommended by physicians and pharmacists as an antioxidant and substance that blocks the action of proinflammatory cytokines (proteins), e.g. in Crohn’s disease or ulcerative intestinal tract. RSO oil has a low CBD material, while high THC. The synergistic (enhancing) action of CBD and THC relative to each other is utilized here. Both cannabinoids can do much more together than when used individually. Both marijuana oil type CBD and RSO likewise contain other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). The secret is not, however, that CBD typically has a structure broadened to include flavones, flavonoids, terpenes, terpenoids, amino acids and omega acids. The difference is mainly due to intentions directing humankind to use one or the other item. CBD medical cannabis oil is a rather helpful mix of cannabinoids, created to secure versus 21st century disease. It’s finest to use all of these compounds together, as nature developed them and enclosed in cannabis inflorescences. Oil of cannabis in a sort of pastime APR consists of percentages of CBD, stabilized by the existence of THC. Makers concentrate on the synergistic impact of one substance relative to the other, while deserting the existence of CBC and CBG. Why such a choice? – Modern scientific research study reveals that CBD + THC deal with severe autoimmune illness, while CBC or CBG reveal minimal activity in the presence of both compounds, simply like terpenes, flavones or flavonoids, therefore their content in the service appears to be unneeded. In addition, the cannabis strain from which THC and CBD are derived consist of minimal amounts of other cannabinoids. RSO oil is completely illegal in Poland, which is why it can not be gotten in any legally operating store on the marketplace. Obviously, there are a number of amateur techniques for getting it, however it’s good to understand that compounds acquired synthetically in house laboratories doubt, untested, and the result unknown. The solvent for the production of home RSO is normally gasoline, alcohol and even kerosene, which rather of curing, toxin. Alcohols and their like hinder cannabinoids, and so in truth, they don’t bring anything new to the medical world. Cannabis oil has actually already marked a new age in which man stopped to fear what is unknown, and started to discover what our forefathers had already noticed and use the considerable potential, in the beginning glance, a little bizarre relationships, associated primarily with pathology. Medical marijuana, contrary to its name, does not mean fermented female inflorescences and leaves containing psychedelic substances coiled in so-called “Joints”, but an useful oil without psychoactive THC. A basic individual, after taking doses of medicinal cannabis and accomplishing the proper state of cannabinoids in the blood, can enjoy increased immunity, lowered vulnerability to cancer, delayed aging and decreased danger of stroke or cardiac arrest. CBD oil consists of cannabidiol as a base component and may include only trace quantities of tetrahydroxycannabidiol (THC). RSO oil has a low CBD material, while high THC. Both cannabis oil type CBD and RSO also contain other cannabinoids, such as cannabichromene (CBC) and cannabigerol (CBG). CBD medical cannabis oil is a rather beneficial mix of cannabinoids, created to safeguard versus 21st century disease. Oil of marijuana in a kind of hobby APR contains small quantities of CBD, stabilized by the existence of THC.

Head Fake

Head Fake

The S&P 500 is down more than 7% in September, the Dow Jones 6% and the Nasdaq Composite more than 10%, into correction territory.  Continue Reading

The Economic Case for Biden

The Economic Case for Biden

US President Donald Trump has seeded the investment environment with uncertainty, trashed America’s trade relationships, blown up the fiscal deficit, and left American workers worse off than they were when he took office. He is the polar opposite of Joe Biden, a politician who understands precisely what the US economy needs. Continue Reading