No Time For Complacency

No Time For Complacency

Despite a deep global recession, double-digit declines in worldwide corporate profitability, rising geo-political risk and no effective long-term solution to the Covid-19 pandemic, global equities continue their impressive advance. Continue Reading

Extrapolation Risk

Extrapolation Risk

Despite a shellacking from Congress during public hearings, a day later the biggest information technology stocks delivered mostly robust revenue and earnings results for the second quarter. Continue Reading

Horror Show

Horror Show

Investing is not, statistically speaking, a horror show. But at discrete intervals, it can be useful to keep an ear out for dissonance. Continue Reading

Fly Fishing and the Market

Fly Fishing and the Market

Investors, it seems, are resigned to following the main current of the river. That may be a good strategy for a boater looking to drift along effortlessly, but an angler knows that fishing in the same pool as everyone else rarely leads to anything except disappointment. Continue Reading

TINA, Meet Keynes

TINA, Meet Keynes

TINA – There Is No Alternative – is a popular Wall Street acronym describing a key reason why equities remain so popular. TINA is about to face a big test. Continue Reading

A Bend In The Road?

A Bend In The Road?

After a powerful and nearly uninterrupted rally dating from late March, global equities lurched sharply lower this past Thursday, before staging a hopeful recovery on Friday. Continue Reading

Pandemic, Payrolls, Protests and Politics

Pandemic, Payrolls, Protests and Politics

Wall Street’s favorite adage, ‘climb a wall of worry’, may soon be put to test. Following the powerful equity market rally of the past two months, investors face unanswered questions regarding sustainable pandemic control, growing unemployment, an uncertain economic recovery, uneven corporate profitability, heightened default risk, opaque policy responses and record valuations. Continue Reading

Where’s the Bottom?

Where’s the Bottom?

Alongside the US Memorial Day holiday, we explore the latest high frequency indicators of global economic activity. Our aim is to provide a snapshot of the collapse in economic activity, and also to see whether and where a bottom may be forming. Continue Reading

The Chosen Few

The Chosen Few

Global equity indices continue to recover. Much of the related commentary concludes that investors are heartened by signs of pandemic curve-flattening and hopes that economic activity can resume more quickly and broadly than previously assumed. Continue Reading

Market Volatility Explained

Market Volatility Explained

This morning, March 18th, global equity markets are again in steep decline, despite the stepped up fiscal and monetary commitments announced in the past few days. Although the policy steps to address the pandemic and its economic consequences are becoming more realistic, they are likely not enough to stabilize markets for two reasons. First, few… Continue Reading

The Coronavirus Infects the Markets

The Coronavirus Infects the Markets

Global risk assets sold off heavily last week on concerns that the coronavirus pandemic may significantly dent growth and corporate earnings. Global equity indices suffered their largest weekly losses since the financial crisis. Continue Reading

Rising Uncertainty

Rising Uncertainty

Markets have suffered a hiccup in recent days, with stock prices dipping at the end of the past week. Long-term interest rates are once again moving lower. Continue Reading