Unpacking Emerging Markets

Unpacking Emerging Markets

The events of recent years—trade conflict, geopolitical risk and the Covid-19 pandemic—have laid bare that extreme differences exist among emerging economies, separating the best from the rest as regards emerging equity, fixed income and currency markets. Continue Reading

The Fog of War

The Fog of War

In this time of extreme flux, perhaps the only definitive statement that can be made is that political, policy and economic sources of uncertainty are on the rise. There is a palpable sense of a spreading fog, where facts are hard to discern with confidence. Continue Reading

Fasten your seatbelts

Fasten your seatbelts

Flagging growth, depressed earnings, the risk of rising Covid-19 infection rates and unprecedented US election risk are forces that not even the Federal Reserve may be able to offset. Continue Reading

Head Fake

Head Fake

The S&P 500 is down more than 7% in September, the Dow Jones 6% and the Nasdaq Composite more than 10%, into correction territory.  Continue Reading

The times, they are a-changin’

The times, they are a-changin’

Bob Dylan’s lyrics resonate today against a backdrop of social and political unrest unlikely any time seen since he penned them. And even in the mundane world of investing, investors must now also recognize that the times are ‘a-changin’. Continue Reading

Politics, Just Not Now

Politics, Just Not Now

The choices voters will make in the US, Germany and Japan, could not be more consequential. No less may be at stake than the fate of liberal democracy. But for the financial markets, the only story that really matters for now is the continuing willingness of central bankers everywhere to do whatever it takes. Continue Reading

In the Shadow of the Tetons

In the Shadow of the Tetons

This week, this missing Tetons will cast a metaphorical shadow over the Fed deliberations. The reason for their absence will be a powerful reminder that we still have our most difficult climbs ahead. Continue Reading

What is the market telling us?

What is the market telling us?

Now that the world’s benchmark equity index—the S&P500—has closed in on its pre-pandemic and all-time highs, it’s useful to carefully examine valuations and drivers of market performance. Continue Reading

No Time For Complacency

No Time For Complacency

Despite a deep global recession, double-digit declines in worldwide corporate profitability, rising geo-political risk and no effective long-term solution to the Covid-19 pandemic, global equities continue their impressive advance. Continue Reading

Extrapolation Risk

Extrapolation Risk

Despite a shellacking from Congress during public hearings, a day later the biggest information technology stocks delivered mostly robust revenue and earnings results for the second quarter. Continue Reading

Horror Show

Horror Show

Investing is not, statistically speaking, a horror show. But at discrete intervals, it can be useful to keep an ear out for dissonance. Continue Reading

Fly Fishing and the Market

Fly Fishing and the Market

Investors, it seems, are resigned to following the main current of the river. That may be a good strategy for a boater looking to drift along effortlessly, but an angler knows that fishing in the same pool as everyone else rarely leads to anything except disappointment. Continue Reading

TINA, Meet Keynes

TINA, Meet Keynes

TINA – There Is No Alternative – is a popular Wall Street acronym describing a key reason why equities remain so popular. TINA is about to face a big test. Continue Reading

A Bend In The Road?

A Bend In The Road?

After a powerful and nearly uninterrupted rally dating from late March, global equities lurched sharply lower this past Thursday, before staging a hopeful recovery on Friday. Continue Reading

Pandemic, Payrolls, Protests and Politics

Pandemic, Payrolls, Protests and Politics

Wall Street’s favorite adage, ‘climb a wall of worry’, may soon be put to test. Following the powerful equity market rally of the past two months, investors face unanswered questions regarding sustainable pandemic control, growing unemployment, an uncertain economic recovery, uneven corporate profitability, heightened default risk, opaque policy responses and record valuations. Continue Reading

Where’s the Bottom?

Where’s the Bottom?

Alongside the US Memorial Day holiday, we explore the latest high frequency indicators of global economic activity. Our aim is to provide a snapshot of the collapse in economic activity, and also to see whether and where a bottom may be forming. Continue Reading

The Chosen Few

The Chosen Few

Global equity indices continue to recover. Much of the related commentary concludes that investors are heartened by signs of pandemic curve-flattening and hopes that economic activity can resume more quickly and broadly than previously assumed. Continue Reading