Weekly Market Compass
The Beauty of Complexity
In looking for simple answers—or worse, easy villains to blame for what goes wrong—we all too often suppress the realities of complexity.
Why Interest Rates Will Come Down
Although the ‘recency bias’ tempts our minds to assume today’s high interest rates are here to stay, the fundamentals of economics suggest
Trump’s Indictment is Just the Beginning
The New York indictment will unleash forces in American politics whose direction and implications are difficult to comprehend.
A Tale of Two Banks
Is the Fed is losing control over the money supply and inflation in its efforts to combat the banking crisis?
Is Banking too Important to Be Left to Bankers?
The Silicon Valley Bank debacle has many lessons, starting with the conclusion that banking may simply be too important to be left to the
Time For a Different Drink?
While it is tempting to assume the market is driven only by the direction of the Federal Reserve, what is happening in China should also be
Markets Believe in Miracles
Global equity markets are priced to perfection, a state that is unlikely to remain unchallenged.
Do We Know What Causes Inflation?
The Phillips Curve has fallen into disrepair, leaving central bankers without reliable tools to navigate through the fog. That ought to worry
It Could Happen in 2023
Investing in private markets has been all the rage. That’s a warning, not an endorsement. The risks of disruption in private markets are
Germany: Tanks are Moral
The 20th century was defined, in many ways, by the worst of Germany. The 21st can yet be defined by its best moral self.
Round 1: 2023 ‘Forecasts’
Although John Kenneth Galbraith once said ‘The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable,’ we think
Secular Stagnation, Not Secular Stagflation
The COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have left most of the world reeling from the effects of stagflation. But as long
Humility and Economics
Economics is full of inherent contradictions — and wisdom for those with the humility to unpack them.
FTX and When Foxes Guard Hen Houses
A great deal has been written about the demise of FTX, the cryptocurrency exchange run by Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF). Many of the post-mortems have focused on potential fraud, drawing comparisons to Enron’s collapse in the early 2000s. Less ink has been spent on...
Turkey for Thanksgiving?
This coming Thursday, Americans celebrate Thanksgiving. Thanksgiving is a family gathering, thankfully without the obligation of gift-giving. It is a holiday to reflect on that for which we are grateful. Turkey is the mainstay of the traditional Thanksgiving dinner. A...
The Midterms’ Red Ripple Delivers Uncertainty to the Markets
In a surprise to many observers (ourselves included), the midterm elections proved to be more closely contested than most polls and political
More Trick than Treat
Trick or treat? This cycle still looks more likely to deliver the mischievous than the sweet.
Could It Happen Here?
The exact experience of the UK crisis will probably not be repeated elsewhere, but financial stress and crises are the norm when monetary
Is a Bottom in Sight?
Stocks and bonds will not find a sustainable bottom until investors are confident that market prices fully discount the degree to which central
Don’t be fooled by mixed signals. The world economy is slowing down and recessions are arriving.
The Final Quarter
In American sports, the final quarter is often when the game is decided. Investors hope Q4 will salvage an awful year — they may be disappointed.
Straws and Camels’ Backs
The economic and financial market outcomes now unfolding will be unpleasant, but they are not likely to be cataclysmic.
ESG Is Just a New Tool to Solve an Old Problem
Environmental, social, and governance investing is fundamentally about finding new ways to manage risk.