Has an ‘all clear’ has been issued in the form of ‘peak inflation’, paving the way for investors to return with gusto into global
All Clear?
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Weekly Market Compass
When Will More Economists Forecast Recession?
Economists are not forecasting a recession, but their forecasting record is not particularly good.
When is Enough, Enough?
Another week, another dismal set of returns. For stock and bond investors, 2022 is off to a terrible start. Now stresses are beginning to emerge in credit fixed income markets. Large Chinese real estate developers are teetering on the edge of default and US...
A Narrow Runway for a Soft Landing
History does not offer many examples of recession-free Fed tightening cycles. Will this be an exception?
Not All One-Eyed Kings Are Alike
For the first time in nearly twenty years, monetary and fiscal policy divergence is emerging worldwide.
Taylor Rule Communication Challenges
Upcoming Fed communication may determine if we are heading into an avoidable recession and a crash on Wall Street.
An Interview with Larry Hatheway
Thoughts on the political divide in the US and a career at the intersection of economics and investing.
The Profits Frenemy
Investors should hope for falling corporate profits, as the alternative will lead to more pain.
The SEC Climate Disclosure Rule Will Change Everything
Our species is facing an existential threat and all major players need to be held accountable to doing the right thing. The SEC’s new
Caution: Curves Ahead
Bond markets are signaling precarious conditions ahead. Investor should take note.
Slowdown Ahead
Investors continue to underestimate global GDP and earnings growth risks.
The Economic Consequences of War
The economic and market implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine will be profound.
Risk, Uncertainty and Markets
Even after recent market volatility, investors may still be underestimating the risks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Ways We Can Help
The defense of freedom requires action, no matter how large or small. Please consider a donation to help those suffering in Ukraine. We are
Productivity Stirrings
If we can force ourselves to disengage from the moment, significant developments are taking place that could reshape our thinking about growth,
Putin and the Eye of Sauron
As Russia prepares for a possible imminent invasion of the Ukraine, the financial market’s Eye of Sauron must now grapple with this major
Wall Street is Wrong about Inflation
Sometimes, the conventional wisdom is unwise. This is one of those times.
What Have You Done for me Lately?
The consensus has shifted. The Fed is expected to tighten a lot in 2022. But crowds are not always wise. Peaking inflation and moderating
Get Used to Volatility
The market volatility over the past few weeks is likely to be the new normal.
Warning: Thin Ice Ahead
Investors are treading on thin ice. Fading fiscal stimulus, interest rate hikes, and high valuations are problematic. Soon, slowing earnings
Are They So Sure?
Central bankers got ‘transitory’ wrong. But now they may be on the verge of a bigger mistake. Let’s hope not.
Market Drivers for 2022
Slowing earnings, Chinese growth and French elections are likely to be more important for 2022 markets than inflation, fiscal policy or bond
2022 and Five Big Topics to Consider
We consider five provocative, challenging and even uncomfortable themes that could dominate the 2022 news cycle.
The Fed Must Get It Right
The Fed misjudged inflation in 2021. But only its reputation was damaged. In 2022, it must get inflation and much else right or else the global