The market volatility over the past few weeks is likely to be the new normal.
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Weekly Market Compass
Warning: Thin Ice Ahead
Investors are treading on thin ice. Fading fiscal stimulus, interest rate hikes, and high valuations are problematic. Soon, slowing earnings
Are They So Sure?
Central bankers got ‘transitory’ wrong. But now they may be on the verge of a bigger mistake. Let’s hope not.
Market Drivers for 2022
Slowing earnings, Chinese growth and French elections are likely to be more important for 2022 markets than inflation, fiscal policy or bond
2022 and Five Big Topics to Consider
We consider five provocative, challenging and even uncomfortable themes that could dominate the 2022 news cycle.
The Fed Must Get It Right
The Fed misjudged inflation in 2021. But only its reputation was damaged. In 2022, it must get inflation and much else right or else the global
Turbulence at 30,000 Feet
Inflation, Divergence and Opportunity
Inflation is beginning to be felt in financial markets. For the astute investor, opportunity beckons.
Hawks, Doves, and Crows
In a world characterized by rapid and significant change, central banks need less focus on hawks and doves, and more on crows.
When Boom Turns to Bust
Parents shouldn’t spend their children’s money. But when it comes to healthcare and pensions, intergenerational injustice is enormous.
Changing of the Guard
The world is adrift, yet investors are unconcerned. That’s collectively unwise.
How Patient Are Investors?
As the third quarter earnings season kicks off, all eyes will be on cost pressures. Margin compression is a concern, but the biggest questions
Filtering Out the Noise
Markets have become more volatile. That’s unsurprising, given high valuations, moderating growth and peak earnings. But volatility is also
Evergrande, Not So Grand?
Evergrande is not China’s Lehman and a western style debt crisis will not be allowed to play out in China. Still, investors should prepare
What Does it all Mean?
Unusual disruptions to labor markets, supply chains and production have slowed growth and boosted inflation, but those factors appear unlikely
Old Bulls
Easy monetary policies and the absence of compelling alternatives have pushed investors into one of the great equity market advances in history.
The Cruelest Month?
September is the worst month for equities. And after a powerful bull market, investors might understandably be concerned. But this September
Unambiguous Ambiguity
Chairman Powell pulled off an impressive feat on Friday. He signaled the Fed’s willingness to taper without unleashing a tantrum. The secret:
Fly Fishing for the Fed
The Fed faces difficult decisions. The incoming data suggest tapering is imminent. But risks are also on the rise.
The Dog Days of Summer
The dog days of summer are here. But when the ‘big dog’–aka the Fed–arrives, the heat may shift to the markets.
Whiplash
Beneath the calm exterior of markets, rotation and counter-rotation are befuddling asset managers. That’s not likely to change.
Fault Lines
The tremors of pandemic, climate change and populism betray the existence of deep fault lines in capitalism’s coexistence with democracy
Pitchforks into Plowshares
Pitchforks are the symbol of popular unrest. Plowshares the biblical allusion to peace and prosperity. Technology companies would be wise
Peak Earnings, Peak Markets
Investors are unimpressed with Q2 earnings. Is the arrival of peak earnings a sign of peak markets? We doubt it.