Weekly Market Compass
Inflation, Divergence and Opportunity
Inflation is beginning to be felt in financial markets. For the astute investor, opportunity beckons.
Hawks, Doves, and Crows
In a world characterized by rapid and significant change, central banks need less focus on hawks and doves, and more on crows.
When Boom Turns to Bust
Parents shouldn’t spend their children’s money. But when it comes to healthcare and pensions, intergenerational injustice is enormous.
Changing of the Guard
The world is adrift, yet investors are unconcerned. That’s collectively unwise.
How Patient Are Investors?
As the third quarter earnings season kicks off, all eyes will be on cost pressures. Margin compression is a concern, but the biggest questions
Filtering Out the Noise
Markets have become more volatile. That’s unsurprising, given high valuations, moderating growth and peak earnings. But volatility is also
Evergrande, Not So Grand?
Evergrande is not China’s Lehman and a western style debt crisis will not be allowed to play out in China. Still, investors should prepare
What Does it all Mean?
Unusual disruptions to labor markets, supply chains and production have slowed growth and boosted inflation, but those factors appear unlikely
Old Bulls
Easy monetary policies and the absence of compelling alternatives have pushed investors into one of the great equity market advances in history.
The Cruelest Month?
September is the worst month for equities. And after a powerful bull market, investors might understandably be concerned. But this September
Unambiguous Ambiguity
Chairman Powell pulled off an impressive feat on Friday. He signaled the Fed’s willingness to taper without unleashing a tantrum. The secret:
Fly Fishing for the Fed
The Fed faces difficult decisions. The incoming data suggest tapering is imminent. But risks are also on the rise.
The Dog Days of Summer
The dog days of summer are here. But when the ‘big dog’–aka the Fed–arrives, the heat may shift to the markets.
Whiplash
Beneath the calm exterior of markets, rotation and counter-rotation are befuddling asset managers. That’s not likely to change.
Fault Lines
The tremors of pandemic, climate change and populism betray the existence of deep fault lines in capitalism’s coexistence with democracy
Pitchforks into Plowshares
Pitchforks are the symbol of popular unrest. Plowshares the biblical allusion to peace and prosperity. Technology companies would be wise
Peak Earnings, Peak Markets
Investors are unimpressed with Q2 earnings. Is the arrival of peak earnings a sign of peak markets? We doubt it.
The Calculus of Today’s Markets
Global markets are struggling to find direction and the reason resides in the calculus of markets, namely a divergence between first and second
Mixed Signals
The pandemic unleashed forces shifting the contours of supply and demand. Price and volume signals are tough to read—for economists and
TINA and the Curve
In a world of negative real interest rates, tight credit spreads and wobbly cryptocurrencies, investors are hemmed in. Stock markets win when
Well Fed
Has the Fed changed its tune about inflation? Is it still transitory, or is it now more evenly distributed? What does this mean for markets?
A Looming Tax Shadow?
What will the G7’s agreement to pursue a minimum global income tax rate of 15% mean for the markets?
From Goldilocks to Stagflation
Is the world economy restoring growth without inflation (‘Goldilocks’), overheating or succumbing to stagflation?