Short-term productivity growth is likely to come in weak, but the real problem is that American workers’ productivity gains have been suffering
Weekly Market Compass
Trash Talking the Fed
Fed Chairman Powell took flak for suggesting the Fed Funds rate is now neutral. The criticism isn’t warranted.
As investors get ready for an August break, most anticipate smooth sailing ahead — but many an August vacation has been ruined by market
A Tale of Two Economies
Investors are confused. Since early June US bond yields have gyrated like a drunken sailor, first soaring, then collapsing, and then surging
‘Recession now’ may not be what investors were hoping to hear, but it is probably preferable to the alternative of recession later.
Unless we take action to restore justice, our children will grow up in injustice. Now is the time to act.
QE is ending and QT is starting — is it time to prepare for temper tantrums?
The Fed’s Big Hammer
The Fed is ready to wield the hammer of monetary policy on the nail of inflation – thumbs are going to get bruised.
Forget Inflation, Think Recession
The arrival of ‘peak inflation’ is not sufficient to calm investor nerves when recession and falling corporate profits loom.
Has an ‘all clear’ has been issued in the form of ‘peak inflation’, paving the way for investors to return with gusto into global
When Will More Economists Forecast Recession?
Economists are not forecasting a recession, but their forecasting record is not particularly good.
When is Enough, Enough?
Another week, another dismal set of returns. For stock and bond investors, 2022 is off to a terrible start. Now stresses are beginning to emerge in credit fixed income markets. Large Chinese real estate developers are teetering on the edge of default and US...
A Narrow Runway for a Soft Landing
History does not offer many examples of recession-free Fed tightening cycles. Will this be an exception?
Not All One-Eyed Kings Are Alike
For the first time in nearly twenty years, monetary and fiscal policy divergence is emerging worldwide.
Taylor Rule Communication Challenges
Upcoming Fed communication may determine if we are heading into an avoidable recession and a crash on Wall Street.
An Interview with Larry Hatheway
Thoughts on the political divide in the US and a career at the intersection of economics and investing.
The Profits Frenemy
Investors should hope for falling corporate profits, as the alternative will lead to more pain.
The SEC Climate Disclosure Rule Will Change Everything
Our species is facing an existential threat and all major players need to be held accountable to doing the right thing. The SEC’s new
Caution: Curves Ahead
Bond markets are signaling precarious conditions ahead. Investor should take note.
Investors continue to underestimate global GDP and earnings growth risks.
The Economic Consequences of War
The economic and market implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine will be profound.
Risk, Uncertainty and Markets
Even after recent market volatility, investors may still be underestimating the risks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Ways We Can Help
The defense of freedom requires action, no matter how large or small. Please consider a donation to help those suffering in Ukraine. We are
If we can force ourselves to disengage from the moment, significant developments are taking place that could reshape our thinking about growth,