The economic and market implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine will be profound.
The Economic Consequences of War
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Weekly Market Compass
Risk, Uncertainty and Markets
Even after recent market volatility, investors may still be underestimating the risks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Ways We Can Help
The defense of freedom requires action, no matter how large or small. Please consider a donation to help those suffering in Ukraine. We are
Productivity Stirrings
If we can force ourselves to disengage from the moment, significant developments are taking place that could reshape our thinking about growth,
Putin and the Eye of Sauron
As Russia prepares for a possible imminent invasion of the Ukraine, the financial market’s Eye of Sauron must now grapple with this major
Wall Street is Wrong about Inflation
Sometimes, the conventional wisdom is unwise. This is one of those times.
What Have You Done for me Lately?
The consensus has shifted. The Fed is expected to tighten a lot in 2022. But crowds are not always wise. Peaking inflation and moderating
Get Used to Volatility
The market volatility over the past few weeks is likely to be the new normal.
Warning: Thin Ice Ahead
Investors are treading on thin ice. Fading fiscal stimulus, interest rate hikes, and high valuations are problematic. Soon, slowing earnings
Are They So Sure?
Central bankers got ‘transitory’ wrong. But now they may be on the verge of a bigger mistake. Let’s hope not.
Market Drivers for 2022
Slowing earnings, Chinese growth and French elections are likely to be more important for 2022 markets than inflation, fiscal policy or bond
2022 and Five Big Topics to Consider
We consider five provocative, challenging and even uncomfortable themes that could dominate the 2022 news cycle.
The Fed Must Get It Right
The Fed misjudged inflation in 2021. But only its reputation was damaged. In 2022, it must get inflation and much else right or else the global
Turbulence at 30,000 Feet
Omicron is Only Part of the Story
Omicron rattled markets. And it exposed them. Flagging profits, peak valuations and economic uncertainty are today’s realities, not tomorrow’s
Inflation, Divergence and Opportunity
Inflation is beginning to be felt in financial markets. For the astute investor, opportunity beckons.
Inflation Judgement Time
For financial markets, 2022 is shaping up to be all about inflation and how central banks respond to it. A policy error could prove irreparably
Hawks, Doves, and Crows
In a world characterized by rapid and significant change, central banks need less focus on hawks and doves, and more on crows.
When Boom Turns to Bust
Parents shouldn’t spend their children’s money. But when it comes to healthcare and pensions, intergenerational injustice is enormous.
Changing of the Guard
The world is adrift, yet investors are unconcerned. That’s collectively unwise.
Trick or Treat
Markets are enjoying a treat of strong profits growth. Beware the trick of supply chain disruptions that are boosting costs, impeding output
How Patient Are Investors?
As the third quarter earnings season kicks off, all eyes will be on cost pressures. Margin compression is a concern, but the biggest questions
Filtering Out the Noise
Markets have become more volatile. That’s unsurprising, given high valuations, moderating growth and peak earnings. But volatility is also
Evergrande, Not So Grand?
Evergrande is not China’s Lehman and a western style debt crisis will not be allowed to play out in China. Still, investors should prepare