Among the many lessons of the 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath in the United States is that there is no good reason to start worrying
The Siren Song of Austerity
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America Must Mend Many Fences on Trade
The past four years of US protectionism and unilateralism will serve as a lasting reminder of how not to conduct trade policy in the twenty-first
Unconventional Wisdom
Promoting recovery with all tools – monetary, fiscal and public health – should be the sole macroeconomic priority of the Biden Administration,
The Spirit of ESG
For ESG investing to succeed, it needs recognition of its normative underpinnings and approaches that incorporate human, not algorithmic,
A No-Brainer for the G20
The sooner we get the COVID-19 pandemic under control, the sooner we can put the global economy back on track. At a virtual gathering this
How to Deter Corporate Crime Like We Mean It
Over the past few decades, the US justice system has gone from effectively punishing white-collar crimes to slapping corporations on the wrist
Why Biden Can Overcome Political Gridlock
According to conventional wisdom, US President-elect Biden will find himself immediately paralyzed because Republicans will follow the same
European Strategic Complacency Is Not an Option
It is now more clear than ever that Europe must take its security, broadly understood, into its own hands. Doing so will not only secure the
Is it Time for a Full-Fledged Rotation?
Rotation in markets is the next big opportunity. Value has a lot of room to make up for a decade of underperformance. But sometimes it pays
When History Finally Makes Sense
Joe Biden, the President-Elect of the United States of America, is just a man. And yet, in the deep wisdom found in democracy, he may be exactly
Letter from Edinburgh
America has been drifting away from Europe for decades. A Biden presidency cannot change this. Europe must come to terms with the currents,
Why Wall Street Likes What It Sees
The 2020 elections may have delivered mixed political messages, but for investors the news is mostly positive. Here are the key take-aways.
Has America Lost Its Soul?
Joe Biden has won the US presidency, but he will have a hard time restoring ethical concerns in a country with so many voters who have become
Why Trump Cries Electoral Fraud
Research suggests that US President Donald Trump’s claims of fraud in the 2020 election could be a psychological strategy, deftly executed
Could Inflation Be The Next Big Thing?
We live in a world of the improbable. Black swans, fat tails, Brexit and Donald Trump remind us that the improbable is possible, sometimes
A House Divided
Abraham Lincoln said that a house divided cannot stand. So, where does that leave us now?
Who Will Win the US Presidential Election?
If the latest polls are any indication, Joe Biden is on track to win the popular vote in the upcoming US presidential election by a substantial
Can Humanity Grow Up?
With rapid globalization and technological innovation have come profound new risks not just to individuals and countries, but to humanity’s
Win, Lose Or Draw?
In our view, the only unambiguous ‘win’ for risk assets is a ‘blue wave’, where Democrats convincingly win the White House and the
When Following Rules Leads to Chaos
Any approach, whether derived from economic, statistical or financial models, that considers interaction between conscious humans as mechanical
Avalanches, Pandemics and Democracy
Like in an avalanche involving a group of skiers where each has their own interpretation of the risk, there is no correct ‘moral’ stance
Recovery and Renewal at the UN
Rising nationalism raises a significant risk that the UN system’s structure and institutions, essential but in need of repair and rejuvenation,
Stormwall: Observations on America in Peril
America stands at a critical turning point in its history, where the gathering storm clouds of four distinct crises have formed and are converging
Are Democrats Bad for the Economy?
A common misperception is that Democrats are bad for markets. Such fears find little foundation in fact.