The demand that Russia pay reparations for its unprovoked war in Ukraine is morally compelling. But Russia would be less likely to reconcile
Economic Consequences of a Ukraine Peace
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Surviving a Future of Extreme Heat
Unprecedented extreme-heat episodes like the heatwave in India and Pakistan this spring and the 2021 heat dome in the Pacific Northwest are
The Blame Game
Today’s inflation is not a monetary phenomenon. Tighter monetary policies cannot address what ails the world economy.
Forget Inflation, Think Recession
The arrival of ‘peak inflation’ is not sufficient to calm investor nerves when recession and falling corporate profits loom.
Don’t Bet on a Soft Landing
With “Team Persistent” having clearly prevailed over “Team Transitory” in the debate over the nature of today’s surging inflation,
How Global Food Crises Work
As if the immediate food shortages created by Russia’s war in Ukraine were not bad enough, the disruption to this year’s harvest means
All Clear?
Has an ‘all clear’ has been issued in the form of ‘peak inflation’, paving the way for investors to return with gusto into global
Musk and the ESG Knife Fight
Tesla has been kicked out of the S&P ESG Index and Elon Musk claims ESG is a scam. Is he right?
The Case for Nordic and NATO Realism
To be a realist in international relations is to accept that some states are more sovereign than others. “Strict realism” now requires
Realizing Africa’s Sustainable Energy Future
Without international support, including investment at scale, African countries will not be able to expand energy access to all and still
When Will More Economists Forecast Recession?
Economists are not forecasting a recession, but their forecasting record is not particularly good.
Will US Inflation Lead to Recession?
Sadly, principled statesmen and women who can forge bold, morally consistent responses to today’s global problems are in short supply.
Kofi Annan’s Lessons in Global Leadership
Sadly, principled statesmen and women who can forge bold, morally consistent responses to today’s global problems are in short supply.
Beware a Global Economy with Little Fires Everywhere
Rich countries have shown impressive unity in helping Ukraine counter the Russian invasion. They now need to demonstrate the same level of
When is Enough, Enough?
Another week, another dismal set of returns. For stock and bond investors, 2022 is off to a terrible start. Now stresses are beginning to emerge in credit fixed income markets. Large Chinese real estate developers are teetering on the edge of default and US...
A Better Globalization Might Rise from Hyper-Globalization’s Ashes
With the end of post-1990s hyper-globalization, scenarios for the world economy run the gamut. In the best case, achieving a better balance
When Does Inflation Stop?
To understand the increase in consumer price inflation around the world, one must look not only at supply and demand but also at the wedge
Europe’s Gas Conundrum
If Europe is willing to pay the price of expensive LNG imports, it could severely undermine Russia’s ability to earn hard currency via gas
A Narrow Runway for a Soft Landing
History does not offer many examples of recession-free Fed tightening cycles. Will this be an exception?
The Fed Does Not Deserve All the Inflation Blame
The US Federal Reserve certainly bears its share of responsibility for the great inflation of the 2020s. But powerful political pressures
Not All One-Eyed Kings Are Alike
For the first time in nearly twenty years, monetary and fiscal policy divergence is emerging worldwide.
Friends Without Benefits
By calling for supply chains to be shifted away from strategic rivals, US Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen has implicitly rejected the
Will Western Sanctions Change the Global Financial System?
Western countries’ increased use of financial sanctions as a weapon of war has created a new incentive for China and other countries
The Growing Threat of Global Recession
With luck, the risk of a synchronized global downturn will recede by late 2022. But for the moment, the odds of recession in Europe, the United