Rotation in markets is the next big opportunity. Value has a lot of room to make up for a decade of underperformance. But sometimes it pays
Is it Time for a Full-Fledged Rotation?
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Why Wall Street Likes What It Sees
The 2020 elections may have delivered mixed political messages, but for investors the news is mostly positive. Here are the key take-aways.
Could Inflation Be The Next Big Thing?
We live in a world of the improbable. Black swans, fat tails, Brexit and Donald Trump remind us that the improbable is possible, sometimes
Can Humanity Grow Up?
With rapid globalization and technological innovation have come profound new risks not just to individuals and countries, but to humanity’s
Avalanches, Pandemics and Democracy
Like in an avalanche involving a group of skiers where each has their own interpretation of the risk, there is no correct ‘moral’ stance
Are Democrats Bad for the Economy?
A common misperception is that Democrats are bad for markets. Such fears find little foundation in fact.
Who’s Afraid of Rules-Based Monetary Policy?
In addition to introducing a massive policy response to the COVID-19 crisis, the US Federal Reserve this year has announced a fundamental
The Most Contentious Election Ever
Much as we might prefer to see it otherwise, it is quite difficult to see how this ends well.
When History Finally Makes Sense
Joe Biden, the President-Elect of the United States of America, is just a man. And yet, in the deep wisdom found in democracy, he may be exactly
Has America Lost Its Soul?
Joe Biden has won the US presidency, but he will have a hard time restoring ethical concerns in a country with so many voters who have become
A House Divided
Abraham Lincoln said that a house divided cannot stand. So, where does that leave us now?
Win, Lose Or Draw?
In our view, the only unambiguous ‘win’ for risk assets is a ‘blue wave’, where Democrats convincingly win the White House and the
Recovery and Renewal at the UN
Rising nationalism raises a significant risk that the UN system’s structure and institutions, essential but in need of repair and rejuvenation,
Listen to the Science
The announcement of this year’s Nobel Prize laureates is an ideal occasion to appreciate how much we owe to basic science, and how scientists
The Time Bomb at the Top of the World
People all over the world are already losing their homes and livelihoods to deadly fires, floods, storms, and other disasters. With scientists
The Public’s Business
By promoting behavioral norms that balance market and society, “stakeholder capitalism” is supposed to enable private firms to
Letter from Edinburgh
America has been drifting away from Europe for decades. A Biden presidency cannot change this. Europe must come to terms with the currents,
Why Trump Cries Electoral Fraud
Research suggests that US President Donald Trump’s claims of fraud in the 2020 election could be a psychological strategy, deftly executed
Who Will Win the US Presidential Election?
If the latest polls are any indication, Joe Biden is on track to win the popular vote in the upcoming US presidential election by a substantial
When Following Rules Leads to Chaos
Any approach, whether derived from economic, statistical or financial models, that considers interaction between conscious humans as mechanical
Stormwall: Observations on America in Peril
America stands at a critical turning point in its history, where the gathering storm clouds of four distinct crises have formed and are converging
Unpacking Emerging Markets
The events of recent years—trade conflict, geopolitical risk and the Covid-19 pandemic—have laid bare that extreme differences exist among
A Billion Here, A Billion There
The United States comprises 4% of the world’s population but consumes over 16% of its energy. It is high time for the United States to once
It’s A Humpy Bumpy World
As 2020 draws to a close, investors are confronted with a binary challenge. How should they proceed?