Investing in private markets has been all the rage. That’s a warning, not an endorsement. The risks of disruption in private markets are
It Could Happen in 2023
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What We Learned in 2022
2022 was a year of significant events, too many of them tragic. Yet, in each of them we also find reasons for hope.
The Midterms’ Red Ripple Delivers Uncertainty to the Markets
In a surprise to many observers (ourselves included), the midterm elections proved to be more closely contested than most polls and political
Trash Talking the Fed
Fed Chairman Powell took flak for suggesting the Fed Funds rate is now neutral. The criticism isn’t warranted.
America’s Birthday
Democracy is not an outcome, but an ambition that requires we seek out our common values rather than fight for rights.
Forget Inflation, Think Recession
The arrival of ‘peak inflation’ is not sufficient to calm investor nerves when recession and falling corporate profits loom.
A Narrow Runway for a Soft Landing
History does not offer many examples of recession-free Fed tightening cycles. Will this be an exception?
Caution: Curves Ahead
Bond markets are signaling precarious conditions ahead. Investor should take note.
Slowdown Ahead
Investors continue to underestimate global GDP and earnings growth risks.
The Economic Consequences of War
The economic and market implications of Russia’s war in Ukraine will be profound.
Risk, Uncertainty and Markets
Even after recent market volatility, investors may still be underestimating the risks of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Ways We Can Help
The defense of freedom requires action, no matter how large or small. Please consider a donation to help those suffering in Ukraine. We are
Ukraine: Implications for Investors
The invasion of Ukraine has near and long-term consequences for investors. It is not as simple as ‘buy the dip’.
Productivity Stirrings
If we can force ourselves to disengage from the moment, significant developments are taking place that could reshape our thinking about growth,
Putin and the Eye of Sauron
As Russia prepares for a possible imminent invasion of the Ukraine, the financial market’s Eye of Sauron must now grapple with this major
Wall Street is Wrong about Inflation
Sometimes, the conventional wisdom is unwise. This is one of those times.
What Have You Done for me Lately?
The consensus has shifted. The Fed is expected to tighten a lot in 2022. But crowds are not always wise. Peaking inflation and moderating
Get Used to Volatility
The market volatility over the past few weeks is likely to be the new normal.
Warning: Thin Ice Ahead
Investors are treading on thin ice. Fading fiscal stimulus, interest rate hikes, and high valuations are problematic. Soon, slowing earnings
Are They So Sure?
Central bankers got ‘transitory’ wrong. But now they may be on the verge of a bigger mistake. Let’s hope not.
Market Drivers for 2022
Slowing earnings, Chinese growth and French elections are likely to be more important for 2022 markets than inflation, fiscal policy or bond
2022 and Five Big Topics to Consider
We consider five provocative, challenging and even uncomfortable themes that could dominate the 2022 news cycle.
Omicron is Only Part of the Story
Omicron rattled markets. And it exposed them. Flagging profits, peak valuations and economic uncertainty are today’s realities, not tomorrow’s
Trick or Treat
Markets are enjoying a treat of strong profits growth. Beware the trick of supply chain disruptions that are boosting costs, impeding output