As the third quarter earnings season kicks off, all eyes will be on cost pressures. Margin compression is a concern, but the biggest questions
JHEStaff
Filtering Out the Noise
Markets have become more volatile. That’s unsurprising, given high valuations, moderating growth and peak earnings. But volatility is also
Old Bulls
Easy monetary policies and the absence of compelling alternatives have pushed investors into one of the great equity market advances in history.
Unambiguous Ambiguity
Chairman Powell pulled off an impressive feat on Friday. He signaled the Fed’s willingness to taper without unleashing a tantrum. The secret:
Fly Fishing for the Fed
The Fed faces difficult decisions. The incoming data suggest tapering is imminent. But risks are also on the rise.
The Dog Days of Summer
The dog days of summer are here. But when the ‘big dog’–aka the Fed–arrives, the heat may shift to the markets.
Whiplash
Beneath the calm exterior of markets, rotation and counter-rotation are befuddling asset managers. That’s not likely to change.
Mr. Taper and Punch Bowls
It is clear that taper talk has arrived, and it won’t go away easily. What does this mean for markets?
What We Learned From the Pandemic
As the pandemic recedes in the US, Jackson Hole Economics co-founders Alex Friedman and Larry Hatheway share personal thoughts on what they
Lessons in Humility
It is time for the Fed to normalize its language. If the Fed is to preserve its credibility and promote sounder financial market conditions,
What Unites Buffett and Powell? They are Both Wrong About Inflation.
Recently, Warren Buffett made headlines by declaring that he is seeing ‘substantial inflation’, while Fed Chairman Powell calls it only
The Tax Man Cometh
Might President’ Biden’s proposed new taxes on investment gains produce a sell-off in capital markets?
The Week Ahead Matters
Over the next five days investors face a veritable tsunami of corporate earnings and economic data releases. The week’s data deluge will
Earnings, Rotation and Regions
The stage is set for rising global output and corporate earnings for the remainder of 2021. Rotation has arrived in sector terms, and is now
It’s Data Time
This week kicks off the first quarter 2021 earnings season in earnest. The bar is high, and the data will soon need to validate embedded expectations,
Taking Stock of America
Today, as the Biden Administration unleashes the full power of the Federal Government to heal the economy, it is an opportune time to take
Siren Songs
The Ever Green fiasco is the perfect metaphor for what can go wrong in today’s economy. Efficienct supply chains lack adequate redundancy.
Market Forecasts vs. Fed Rhetoric
The Fed and the markets are playing risky games. Can each hold its nerve?
Reflation, Rotation and Rebalancing
Reflation and Rotation are all the rage. But over time, re-balancing matters more.
Central Bank Credibility
By tolerating an inflation overshoot, the Fed may be boxing itself in. Fine tuning is the stuff of hubris, and hubris rarely serves anyone
Keep an Eye on What Really Matters
Investors have been unnerved by rising bond yields. But volatility is not the enemy. Keep an eye on what really matters — economic re-opening
Scary Monsters
David Bowie’s ‘Let’s Dance’ may be catchier than ‘Scary Monsters’, but investors would be well advised to watch out for what lurks
How Deep Should Investors Swim?
Swimming against a tide pushed forward by massive policy stimulus seems likely to leave contrarian investors with little to show for their
Democratic Disagreement
Divisions among the Democrats are opening, with potentially profound impacts on a cyclical recovery, inflation, financial markets and longer-term