Considering the economy as machine, the market as automaton, and humans as robots is an ontological mistake, and a very expensive one at that.
Economics’ Mental Virus
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The Stock-Market Disconnect
The best explanation for why stock markets remain so bullish despite a massive recession is that major publicly traded companies have not
Herd Immunity Will Not Defeat COVID-19
Although White House officials deny that US President Donald Trump’s administration has adopted herd immunity as a strategy for combating
The UN’s Existential Crisis
Far from bolstering multilateralism, COVID-19 has revealed a world of nation-states locked into a destructive zero-sum contest. The United
The Fog of War
In this time of extreme flux, perhaps the only definitive statement that can be made is that political, policy and economic sources of uncertainty
Joe is not Barack (and that is a good thing)
Cometh the hour, cometh the man. ‘Uncle Joe’, centered and centrist, understanding and unflappable, decent and democratic, civil and civilian
Don’t Mess With Our History
President Trump has announced the creation of a 1776 Federal Commission to promote Patriotic History Education, which will classify any history
Why Quality Matters More Than Quantity
Shifting human behaviors to more sustainable outcomes can be informed by the targets we set for ourselves. Quality, not quantity, is the promise
Don’t Write Off the US Dollar Just Yet
The recent weakening of the US dollar can be explained by near-term market forces rather than any epochal shift.
Fasten Your Seatbelts
Flagging growth, depressed earnings, the risk of rising Covid-19 infection rates and unprecedented US election risk are forces that not even
The Meaning of 200,000 COVID-19 Deaths
Americans’ desensitization to the pandemic’s skyrocketing death toll vindicates Joseph Stalin’s famous observation: “One death is
Taxes and the Markets
Rather than obsess over tax rates, investors should consider more broadly how economic, policy and political factors will shape the market
Head Fake
The S&P 500 is down more than 7% in September, the Dow Jones 6% and the Nasdaq Composite more than 10%, into correction territory.
The Economic Case for Biden
US President Donald Trump has seeded the investment environment with uncertainty, trashed America’s trade relationships, blown up the
Reopening the Peace Factory
Some regard the United Nations as one of the greatest achievements of the so-called liberal international order that was conceived at the
The Times, They Are a-Changin’
Bob Dylan’s lyrics resonate today against a backdrop of social and political unrest unlikely any time seen since he penned them. And even
Our Moral Compass
Are we still a nation that believes that character counts? Are we still guided by a strong moral compass?
The New Eastern Mediterranean Crisis
While much of the world remains distracted by the COVID-19 pandemic, Turkey is trying to reshape its geopolitical neighborhood, and Lebanon
The Coming Global Technology Fracture
Today’s international trade regime was not designed for a world of data, software, and artificial intelligence. Already under severe
Winning the Fight Against Cholera
In recent years, the world has made considerable progress in the fight against cholera. But, with climate change, urbanization, and population
The Cruelest Month
September, and October, will probably contain a few nasty surprises. Get ready.
A K-Shaped Recovery is a Disaster
The stock market is soaring while small businesses are dying. It can’t go on this way. A K-shaped recovery is a disaster, and would undermine
The Fed Can’t Drive Stocks Much Higher
Although the Fed’s August policy update reinforced some analysts positive view of U.S. stocks going forward, it does not inspire much confidence
Winners and Losers of the Pandemic Economy
While it is true that bullish equity markets are out of step with the historic contraction in the real economy, to say that they are disconnected