In this time of extreme flux, perhaps the only definitive statement that can be made is that political, policy and economic sources of uncertainty
The Fog of War
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Weekly Market Compass
Fasten Your Seatbelts
Flagging growth, depressed earnings, the risk of rising Covid-19 infection rates and unprecedented US election risk are forces that not even
Head Fake
The S&P 500 is down more than 7% in September, the Dow Jones 6% and the Nasdaq Composite more than 10%, into correction territory.
The Times, They Are a-Changin’
Bob Dylan’s lyrics resonate today against a backdrop of social and political unrest unlikely any time seen since he penned them. And even
The Cruelest Month
September, and October, will probably contain a few nasty surprises. Get ready.
Politics, Just Not Now
The choices voters will make in the US, Germany and Japan, could not be more consequential. No less may be at stake than the fate of liberal
In the Shadow of the Tetons
This week, this missing Tetons will cast a metaphorical shadow over the Fed deliberations. The reason for their absence will be a powerful
What is the Market Telling Us?
Now that the world’s benchmark equity index—the S&P500—has closed in on its pre-pandemic and all-time highs, it’s useful to carefully
No Time For Complacency
Despite a deep global recession, double-digit declines in worldwide corporate profitability, rising geo-political risk and no effective long-term
Extrapolation Risk
Despite a shellacking from Congress during public hearings, a day later the biggest information technology stocks delivered mostly robust
Horror Show
Investing is not, statistically speaking, a horror show. But at discrete intervals, it can be useful to keep an ear out for dissonance.
Are the Dollar’s Days Numbered?
Few issues in economics more befuddle and divide the profession than figuring out what determines exchange rates.
Fly Fishing and the Market
Investors, it seems, are resigned to following the main current of the river. That may be a good strategy for a boater looking to drift along
Wanted: New Leadership
Another week and more rising global equity markets. But also, more outperformance by the market’s stalwarts —growth, technology and momentum.
TINA, Meet Keynes
TINA – There Is No Alternative – is a popular Wall Street acronym describing a key reason why equities remain so popular. TINA is about
Has the Market Lost Its “Mind?”
Over the past decade, and even more notably in recent months, stock markets appear to have de-coupled from fundamentals. Or have they? In
A Bend In The Road?
After a powerful and nearly uninterrupted rally dating from late March, global equities lurched sharply lower this past Thursday, before staging
Recovery or Relapse?
Beneath the market’s joyful response to inflection points, levels of spending, output and joblessness remain bleak.
Pandemic, Payrolls, Protests and Politics
Wall Street’s favorite adage, ‘climb a wall of worry’, may soon be put to test. Following the powerful equity market rally of the past
Where’s the Bottom?
Alongside the US Memorial Day holiday, we explore the latest high frequency indicators of global economic activity. Our aim is to provide
Re-Opening Does Not Signal Buy
Markets dipped this past week. Might this signal the end of the recent rebound? Or is it merely a pause, with further gains to come?
On the Same Page—For Better or Worse
This past week equity markets continued their impressive recovery from their Covid-19 lows.
Market Compass: Six Headwinds
Markets recovered strongly in April. US equities enjoyed one of their best months since the 1930s, credit markets stabilized, and even depressed
Calmer, But For How Long?
As we move into the last week of April, market jitters appear to have begun to subside. Even oil prices recouped some of their dramatic declines.