Anyone speculating on what the world will look like when we emerge from Covid- 19 lockdown, would do well to heed the famous quip about prediction
After Covid-19 – Debt Forgiveness?
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Economics
How Capitalism Must Change
The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed fundamental fault lines in the reigning business model of the past 40 years.
Markets are Mistaken
Last week, markets rebounded. Major equity indices have now recouped half their losses from their Covid-19 driven lows.
A Global COVID-19 Exit Strategy
The COVID-19 pandemic poses an unprecedented threat to both public health and the global economy. Only by ditching nationalist rhetoric and
The Climb Ahead
The tectonic shocks of a world now defined by COVID-19 will settle over time, but the landscape of our lives may never look the same.
The Human-Capital Costs of the Crisis
Unlike a hurricane or earthquake, the coronavirus pandemic has caused no damage to physical capital stock. But firm-specific skills have no
Getting America Back to Work… Safely
Without a credible plan, the nation will be in fear and chaos for a long time. COVID-19 infections are peaking in parts of the country, but
Cryptocurrencies’ Time to Shine?
Digital money with strong privacy protections will be a key feature of the post pandemic recovery.
A Flat Curve is Not Enough
Investors ought to be wary of overstating the economic and market benefits of pandemic curve flattening.
What COVID-19 Is Doing To The World Economy
The world economy is in the midst of a unique shock. It tests our ability to use conventional models and history to gain understanding.
Uncertainty, Risk and Asset Prices
The pandemic remains the sole driver of global markets. That reality makes fundamental analysis difficult, if not impossible.
Why The Largest Stimulus In History Still Is Not Enough
Global equity markets rallied over 20% last week on expectations that the $2 trillion U.S. fiscal stimulus package would be adequate to combat
Time To Face Up To The Crisis
It has been said that generals are always fighting the last war. Are governments and central banks, in their rush to deploy big bazooka stimulus
History Has Something To Say
Today, it is tempting to jettison conventional thinking about asset prices and their relationship to the fundamentals.
Time To Print Money
As the pandemic spreads, so too do fears of recession or worse. Respected forecasters speak of 30-50% declines in US gross domestic product,
Should Markets Be Closed?
Today, our species is in panic. COVID-19 is driving upheaval in every human realm. There can be no doubt that the primary mission is to slow
Restoring Market Confidence: What Will It Take?
While China appears to have contained new rates of infection (flattened the curve to near-zero new cases), doubts will persist whether China’s
States Must Coordinate or the Curve Won’t be Flattened
All fifty states have declared states of emergency. But even under these declarations, counties pursue their own policies.
Market Volatility Explained
This morning, March 18th, global equity markets are again in steep decline, despite the stepped up fiscal and monetary commitments announced
Thoughts on Surviving this Avalanche
Public policy is now moving on two fronts: containing the pandemic and offering economic stimulus. But will that be enough to draw support
An ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure
Global risk assets had another tumultuous week, responding to the spread of the coronavirus, paltry efforts to mitigate its economic fallout,
The Coronavirus Infects the Markets
Global risk assets sold off heavily last week on concerns that the coronavirus pandemic may significantly dent growth and corporate earnings.
A COVID-19 Emergency Response Plan
The COVID-19 epidemic is accelerating, and as the new coronavirus approaches pandemic status, it is increasingly likely that the economic
Rising Uncertainty
Markets have suffered a hiccup in recent days, with stock prices dipping at the end of the past week. Long-term interest rates are once again