Economics is often called “the dismal science”. And economists are very pessimistic about the near-term outlook as a result of the recent
Are “Dismal Scientists” Dismal Enough During Recessions?
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Economics
On the Same Page—For Better or Worse
This past week equity markets continued their impressive recovery from their Covid-19 lows.
Time to Face Up to Reality
It was all very predictable. The mood of fanfare and almost universal applause that greeted the launch of the big bazooka COVID-19 support
Repress Covid, Repress Finance?
The economic crisis unfolding in western economies is the fastest and deepest on record.
Market Compass: Six Headwinds
Markets recovered strongly in April. US equities enjoyed one of their best months since the 1930s, credit markets stabilized, and even depressed
No, Elon Musk, Stay-at-Home Orders Aren’t ‘Fascist’
Stay-at-home orders are “fascist” and “not democratic.” At least, that’s according to Tesla CEO Elon Musk.
What the Stock Market Is Really Saying
The seeming confidence expressed by global equity markets in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic has surprised many – including many market
Calmer, But For How Long?
As we move into the last week of April, market jitters appear to have begun to subside. Even oil prices recouped some of their dramatic declines.
Target R and Wait for the Vaccine
Opening up the economy means allowing more human interaction and hence greater potential for new #COVID19 infections. Two numbers matter for
After Covid-19 – Debt Forgiveness?
Anyone speculating on what the world will look like when we emerge from Covid- 19 lockdown, would do well to heed the famous quip about prediction
How Capitalism Must Change
The Covid-19 pandemic has exposed fundamental fault lines in the reigning business model of the past 40 years.
Markets are Mistaken
Last week, markets rebounded. Major equity indices have now recouped half their losses from their Covid-19 driven lows.
A Global COVID-19 Exit Strategy
The COVID-19 pandemic poses an unprecedented threat to both public health and the global economy. Only by ditching nationalist rhetoric and
The Climb Ahead
The tectonic shocks of a world now defined by COVID-19 will settle over time, but the landscape of our lives may never look the same.
The Human-Capital Costs of the Crisis
Unlike a hurricane or earthquake, the coronavirus pandemic has caused no damage to physical capital stock. But firm-specific skills have no
Getting America Back to Work… Safely
Without a credible plan, the nation will be in fear and chaos for a long time. COVID-19 infections are peaking in parts of the country, but
Cryptocurrencies’ Time to Shine?
Digital money with strong privacy protections will be a key feature of the post pandemic recovery.
A Flat Curve is Not Enough
Investors ought to be wary of overstating the economic and market benefits of pandemic curve flattening.
What COVID-19 Is Doing To The World Economy
The world economy is in the midst of a unique shock. It tests our ability to use conventional models and history to gain understanding.
Uncertainty, Risk and Asset Prices
The pandemic remains the sole driver of global markets. That reality makes fundamental analysis difficult, if not impossible.
Why The Largest Stimulus In History Still Is Not Enough
Global equity markets rallied over 20% last week on expectations that the $2 trillion U.S. fiscal stimulus package would be adequate to combat
Time To Face Up To The Crisis
It has been said that generals are always fighting the last war. Are governments and central banks, in their rush to deploy big bazooka stimulus
History Has Something To Say
Today, it is tempting to jettison conventional thinking about asset prices and their relationship to the fundamentals.
Time To Print Money
As the pandemic spreads, so too do fears of recession or worse. Respected forecasters speak of 30-50% declines in US gross domestic product,